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Weak Dollars and Strong Commodities?

January 13, 2011 by  

Weak Dollars and Strong Commodities?

Many market analysts believe there is an inverse relationship between the value of the United States dollar and the price of commodities. It isn’t uncommon to see headlines like these:

“U.S. Dollar’s Weakness Boosts Commodity Prices”

“Weaker Dollar Boosts Oil, Gold & Silver”

Some analysts claim this relationship is so powerful it outweighs the effect of fundamental factors. Others say the relationship is secondary to fundamentals like supply and demand. Some say the relationship is causal. Others say it is psychological, affecting the perception of traders. With so many opinions, whom do you believe?

As a technical trader, I always prefer to go to my charts and see what they tell me. I’m not so much interested in why such a relationship may exist. I’m interested first to see for myself whether such a relationship does in fact exist. Then I can decide how to use this knowledge to improve my trading success.

So let’s begin by looking at two charts that provide the easiest way to decide whether or not there really is a relationship between the value of the U.S. dollar and commodity prices. First we’ll look at the daily chart for the U.S. Dollar Index. We’ll look at a weekly chart, which gives us a more long-term picture than the daily chart.

Now let’s compare that with the chart of the CRB Continuous Commodity Index cash market, which is composed of data from a group of commodities that are believed to be the first to react to changing economic conditions.

When you look at these two charts together, the inverse relationship is quite noticeable.

In early to mid-2007, both charts are trading in their mid-range. From there, the U.S. dollar drops to a series of lows, while the CRB rises to highs. From mid-2008 the CRB steeply plunges from its high, reaching its low in the third quarter of that year. During that same time period the U.S. dollar soars to new highs. It then dips and hits a second high in early 2009. It then starts a steady downtrend until it hits a new low toward the end of 2009. By contrast, from 2009 to 2010 the CRB moves steadily upward. Then comes 2010. The U.S. dollar shoots up to a new high in mid-year, and then falls. Again, in contrast, during 2010 the CRB drops to a minor low (corresponding in time to the U.S. dollar high) and then soars to new highs. The two charts are almost mirror images of one another.

Now let’s look at the charts of some specific commodities to see whether they show the same pattern. Let’s start with the weekly chart for gold.

Although the range of the highs and lows varies between gold and the CRB, the shapes of the charts are very similar, with highs and lows being made within the same time frame.

Now let’s look at the weekly chart for corn, an example from the grain sector.

The corn chart is very similar to the CRB chart, with highs in mid-2008 and lows in the third quarter of 2008. Whereas the CRB chart then entered a steady climb, the corn chart remained in a trading range before starting its climb in 2010. The charts look very similar from mid-2010 to the present.

The story is the same for a number of other commodity markets. If you’re interested, you might check out the charts for crude oil, coffee and sugar, for example.

Now let’s look at some daily charts to get a closer-in look. Look at the chart of the March 2011 U.S. Dollar Index.

We see that over the four months from September through December, prices dropped to a low in early November; then they rose to a high in late November; and then entered into a mid-level trading range.

Let’s compare that to the same time period in the CRB CCI Index cash market.

In early September, while the U.S. Dollar Index was high and then began to drop, the CRB Index started low and began to rise. It hit a high in early November that corresponds to the low in early November made by the U.S. dollar. CRB prices then dropped to secondary lows in mid to late November, at the time that the U.S. dollar was heading for a high. After that CRB prices rose steadily, while the U.S. dollar Index entered a mid-level trading range.

Judging by these daily charts, it looks like the inverse relationship between commodity prices (as represented by the CRB Index) and the U.S. dollar seems to be holding for the short-term, as well as the long-term.

What does this mean to traders? Well, we can’t say for sure what causes this relationship, but we can see that it exists. If the U.S. dollar is making a big move, there’s a good possibility the commodity markets will be moving in the opposite direction. So, when we see the U.S. dollar moving, that can be our signal to check the commodity markets and consider trading them in the opposite direction from the dollar. This assumes an examination of the charts reveals that all the correct signs are there. And, of course, always take the right steps to manage and protect your position.

– Jim Prince

Jim Prince

is a 20 year trading veteran and the educational director at The United States Chart Company—one of the futures industry’s premier charting and data analysis services. Jim directs U.S. Charts’ numerous course offerings for both beginning and advanced traders, preparing course members to enter the markets as knowledgably and safely as possible. To this end he prepares weekly newsletters, market alerts, training videos, webinars, a daily market blog and more. Over the years he’s helped hundreds of thousands of individuals discover the profit opportunities awaiting them in the commodity markets.

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  • Vicki

    I do not actually have to read the article to know it is true. Supply/demand affects EVERYTHING. Even the stuff used as money.

    Having said that I will now read the article ;)

    • David

      True, a surplus of anything means prices will fall. Print, print and print some more. Meanwhile gas will climb back to $4/gal and this so very weak economy will fall back again.

      Maybe the supposed depression of 2012 is a set up??

      • traderphil

        Can you say COMPLETE manipulation of the markets!!!

        • DaveH

          Can you say more dollars chasing fewer goods?

    • EddieW

      I remember Nixon…printing money as fast as they do today!! infltion rampant, and he freezes prices, you could go to a hardqare store, and couldn’t get what you needed, because they couln’t afford to make it at the frozen price of it…I remember the sign saying 1382 things now unavailable….so Nixon starts a button campaign…WIN Whip Inflation Now…but we can’t!!! Only stopping the printing of money can whip inflation!! Nixon a pipe dreamer!!

      • Al Sieber

        EddieW, Nixon knew exactly what he was doing, he took us off the gold standard in 1971 so he could print up as much money as they needed.

        • DaveH

          No doubt.

        • Peter

          Exactly! Taking the market off the gold standard means the emperor can run around naked for decades and nobody will care, because there’s nothing to measure his nudity by! The only way to control govt spending is to bring back the gold standard, but then you’d have to watch the global markets with their naked emperors living in houses of cards come crumbling down with increasing rapidity, so I won’t hold my breath for a President or a govt with enough testosterone to actually do that.

          • HighLighter

            Nixon had another problem. Europeans were buying up all our gold because they had dollars redemable in gold. All the gold would have left the US ( in theory ) if this had continued.

          • Al Sieber

            Highligtler, you’re right! the Europeans redeemed most of the gold.

  • FreedomFighter

    My heart goes out to the fixed income elderly and the out-of-work and working poor, they will be the ones to suffer the most from Obummer-nomics.

    Laus Deo
    Semper Fi

    • Richard Pawley

      Sadly true but if we continue on the path we are on no one will escape the misery of the future. I was fascinated when I first heard that we even have a ‘misery index’ nowadays. The 10 chart above for gold could be used for 40 years or 80 years. All three would be very similar. All these charts and theories of investment may work well for day traders and short term investors but all commodities (things) would show similarities to the chart used for gold if you showed them for 30, 50, or even 100 years. As a five year old I remember my uncle filling up his auto for 16.9 cents a gallon in Rhode Island. In the 1960′s outside Shaw AFB, Sumter, SC, I filled up for 23.9 (they had frequent price wars). In the 1970′s I frequently paid 31.9 in New York and today it is just over ten times that. The stock market is great for speculation but like our money it is only paper. The coupons we use for money all represent debt. It’s why people who understand that have been buying real things for decades, from farmland to precious metals, and from non-perishable foods to water. In my autobiography, LEAVING SOUTH CAROLINA I talk about the hurricane of 1938 that slammed into Rhode Island. My future mom was a teenager, and because they had lost their home in Providence, due to the Great Depression, she and her family had moved to a cabin that was then in the country and on higher ground. Providence was submerged under nearly 20 feet of water and many died. The really sad thing was that they had been warned but because no one had ever experienced anything like that, even in memory, they couldn’t grasp that such a storm could happen. It’s like the economic storm that I have been warning about for 20 years. This little stock market crash we had in 2008 (which I warned was coming in LSC) was not it. It is still coming. In my autobiography I called it the Greater Depression but it may be called something different by those who survive it. It will be far worse than the ‘Great Depression’ our grandparents and great grandparents lived through. Actually many died and the 1940 census indicated that there were 3,000,000 fewer Americans then than there should have been. This would be the equivalent of 6,500,000 missing in the 2010 census. Today many refuse to believe that such a financial catastrophe could happen in our great but nearly bankrupt country, and most refuse to prepare or stockpile non-perishable foods or other things they will need before the great inflation that isn’t to many years away hits us with the ferocity of the 1938 Hurricane. Just as Rhode Islander’s ignored the weathermen in 1938 so many are ignoring the financial weathermen today. Not just those on fixed incomes but all will suffer as a result of the financial storm that is coming. Believer’s can pray for direction and guidance but those who don’t know God will have to depend on a government that is even now just creating 75,000 MILLION DOLLARS a month out of thin air. We might call it counterfeiting but they call it Quantitative Easing. This tremendous increase in more dollars will ultimately make the ones we have worth a lot less. This constant devaluation of the dollar that has been going on for generations is one of the reasons, according to those I talked with several years ago, why even then 15,000 a month were leaving the country. We have time enough to prepare but not time enough to waste. Please don’t panic but don’t take this likely and get talked out of it by a relative or friend who is convinced that the government will save us all. They, likely, will not even be able to save themselves.

      • Carole Howell

        Well, cutting taxes during war time and the funding of these two wars put us into this debt and the deeper in debt we go, the less value our money has. That was the issue during Bush the 1st’s administration. Our dollar fell back then too, remember. Clinton paid down that debt by 3/4s.

        These wars were totally unnecessary. After the 1st WTC bombing, Clinton went after the perpetrators using INTERPOL and every single on w/o exceptions were brought to justice, no war was needed. And the cost was minimal. These wars are costing us 17 trillion and we have gotten very few of the people responsible. The Pentagon has said that most of the people in Guantanamo are innocent and were just is the wrong place at the wrong time. We have made even more enemies than we had before and we look bad in the eyes of the rest of the world.

        • DaveH

          Clinton paid down the debt. Please. He was there. That was all:

          • Al Sieber

            DaveH, good post and links, 17- trillion is a lot of $ for a war.

        • DaveH

          I don’t know where you get your $17 Trillion figure, Carole.
          I did find this:

        • DaveH

          The real pity is that you have a point about the wars being costly, but when you exaggerate the figures so much, you lose credibility, thus losing the chance to influence people.
          And there are much more than just monetary costs to war:

  • tim

    Thanks! I have often asked why do we hear how much the government spends but never how much the government actually makes. This manipulation starts to clear the smoke.

  • steve jones

    yes the dollar is the bases for commodities but in the case of oil it is OPEC that rules the roost. they are #4 supplier to the U.S. but they are the biggest player in the world and it wouldn’t supprise me at all if they can control the commodity price . once china and india really get rolling the US won’t matter to OPEC . all of their oil will go to the highest bidder and china and india now have our dollars.

    • wayne

      This is why this country needs to drill for more oil. Obama and the Democrats do not want to drill. They want to bring this contry to its knees. I wonder why????

  • http://com i41

    Steve, how true about commodities, for 3 decades taxpayers have been paying landowners to let millions of farmgroung acres to lay idle. The beltway smucks were and are continuing do the same crap as FDR and the firsy Sec of Ag who was a regostered communist democrat, who love USSR method of government food production. The Onumnutt adminstration and the socialist lap dogs of EPA. stopped a The Trans-Canadian pipeline from being installed from Baker MT to the gulf in Sept 2010. This has been laid out in the last 5 years, and would allow USA to pay off our massive debt to China and put strength under the dollar. Since the Williston-Baaken Basin has expanded south another 200 miles south and ND having oil and coal in every county except four, What are we getting hosed for by the socialis soros bastards in the WH and in Congress. Firsyt to totally ruin our nation, and try to force citizens to promote the crap electric carts and hybrid models. Market sales proved citizen don’t want the crap things, like florecent lights and useless battery powered crap. Check to see what the requirements of creating a battery and the waste of minerals and the “footprint”.

    • wayne

      I wonder how we can find out which idiots in Congress voted exclusively to buy our light bulbs from China starting in 2012, 2013 & 2014. I wonder how much money exchanged hands in this deal? If we can find out, let’s get rid of all Democrats (Socialist) in Congress as I feel it was most of them who voted for it anyway. After 2014 there will not be any more light bulbs made in the United States. I heard on TV a short time back that GE has made their last batch of light bulbs. This is how stupid our Democrats are, and you wonder why you cannot find a job anymore. Plus these bulbs have mercury in them which are dangerous to our health. For more information on the light bulbs being made in China, go here:

      • wayne

        If you Liberals, Democrats, or what ever you claim to be, that’s backing Obama, and the Democrats, you will find youself looking for a nonexistent job in the near future. If your on food stamps, or welfare, there will be less people working, and therefore you food stamps, or welfare checks will have to be cut. Remember, the less folks that are working, the less money the government is getting, and that means less money to you if you are on food stamps, or welfare.

        • Lastmanstanding

          Wayne, none of them will actually believe it until the check doesn’t come. They will call to find out “Where’s my check?” They will be told. “It’s in the mail, or, “it’s just a small glitch in our computers, etc.” AND THEY WILL STILL BELIEVE IT!!! Then they will be in the streets as we have seen in Greece, England ,Ireland…

          Many believe that it can’t happen in the United States of America.

          Look at history…It is very simple…


          • herman richardson

            of course the folks getting the checks will have a rude awakening, but, why should folks be paid for sitting on their asses??I have a 400 pound sister, the government is paying a check to because she is fat. If ugly was one of the factors for a check, lord have mercy, their would be so many more. I make 300 a month cleaning windows, with torn rotator cuffs, but would rather starve to death than take a dime from the commies/Nazis what ever name you want to call them. You get your little old check, then oops sorry no more. There you are standing with your panties in a wad. The folks geting the money are the ones that will hurt. Folks like me have been doing without for years, no big deal. At least I have my dignity. Stand up and do for yourself!!

          • DaveH

            Good man, herman.

      • DaveH
        • DaveH

          Here are the Roll Call Votes for the Bill in the House of Representatives:

        • DaveH
          • wayne

            DaveH, I placed all these website in my favoites. Thank you.

        • wayne

          Thanks, DaveH. I put it in my favorites.

          • wayne

            Every one of us would like to have a clean planet, but not at the expense of some one going without a job trying to feed their family. I would like to see the government ease up their restrictions on oil and coal so we can put more folks back to work, and lessen te cost of fuel. Obama has had two years now to work on creating jobs, but wasted the first two years in getting his health care bill passed and attempting to pass the “Cap & Trade” bill. He should have used the first two years of creating jobs. Now I feel since we are less than two years away from the presidential election he will be making speeches on how he is working hard to create new jobs. If the folks are fooled by this rhetoric, and votes him back in again he will go right back to the way he did the first two years, trying to ramrod his agendas on the American People again. I don’t trust Obama.

    • HighLighter

      I wish I could be more like i41! I just do not understand his word juxaposition and scrambling. It’s amazing stuff. He can get with it, if you take the time to read it.

  • http://comcast.NET 5224wd

    And the scam goes on,quit calling FRN (federal reserve NOTES)Dollars,,,,$ This is not a dollar symbol. It is the symbol for SLAVERY
    The REAL DOLLAR symbol has two vertical slashes,Form @Substance,we have no substance, it has been stolen.Silver for commodies, you bet,commodies for paper (FRN)what are you really getting,how many really know,(Bob knows) It ment so much to Patrick,Thomas,John,(Woodrow),Reagon,an many others.The purchase of commodies with paper$$$$$$ just keeps getting Bigger (WEAK $$$$$$)
    Same ole story different day,,What is the —Solution,easy said Not easily done.(Bob knows many others know)Get rid of the cause,( FRS )Federal Reserve System,Foreign bank notes.Need to start at the poor mans level,Substance,(labor etc.)Quit using the banks @FRN.Laughing yet ?He, They ARE.,TRY AND SURVIVE without the Mark,we can,start indivudal,local,state.Substance for substance,not paper.Will most people support this,likely the ones without jobs will support the move,but not until the give aways are done..Bob says his book will help you survive(payable in FRN,)but he probably would sooner have substance,(Commodies)A patriot at heart….Help with the CURE we know the CAUSE.

  • Alice

    President Bush destroyed U.S economy. He started non win two wars with Arabic countries. Bush is a rich man, and he doesn’t need to work because he has a plenty of wealth. Now, how US economy get out from the crisis?

    • Vicki

      Isn’t it time we accept that Bush is not God and look to what the current administration is doing? Obama continues the wars in Arabic countries. Obama continues to spend spend spend (well Democrat Congress with Obamas signature to be more accurate). Obama refuses to let companies drill for oil here where we get the profits. Obama is a rich man who doesn’t need to work because he has plenty of wealth.

    • wayne

      Alice, if these wars are not winnable, why does Obama still hang in there, or have you thought about it that way? With our military strenght, these wars could be won in a weeks time if we would let the military use the weapons at our disposal. The political correctness bull crap is keeping us from winning these wars. Maybe it’s like the Korean War, and the Vietnam War they did not want to win. I am just glad we had people who had the desire and wanted to win in WW2, or we all may be speaking German.

    • wayne

      Alice, do you think Obama is doing any better? You had better wake up, and soon. Obama has out spent Bush by a huge sum of money. Think this way, we are now $14,000,000,000,000 in debt. Under Bush we were some place around $10,000,000,000,000. Do you see a difference of about 4 trillion dollars. I don’t believe I need to go any further with this.

    • herman richardson

      The second idiot bush had to go to war, to make his daddy proud.

      • wayne

        And the idiot, Obama, is kicking the can further down the road. Your saying we got rid of one idiot and now we have another idiot that is following the role of the of the idiot Bush. Two wrongs don’t make a right.

  • LiarsMustBeDefeated

    Using the charts shown, one can see that for days and weeks at a time the relationship does NOT hold. It is only over the long haul that the fundamentals come into play. The article says some good things but caution is on order. Nonetheless, spend your money while the dollar is strong. Inflation seems to be on order.

  • Al

    Read “Creature from Jekyll Island” by Edward Griffin if you haven’t already read it. He’s got the “FRS” layout from the beginning.

  • Bill

    Oregon has a state sales tax, and this sounds better than the National IRS tax, I for one say use it, dump IRS, and there thugs, this way all pay on what you buy, from granny to Bill Gates, all pay and fairly, I see this as a plus, now if we could go to the gold standard and do away with the Federal Reserve we would be heading some place. Folks if we shut the border and deported all illegal invaders, made anchor babies the citizens of their parents, we would pay the deportations costs in 14 to 16 months on what we spend on them here in America any way. After that that money would be to our + and it should start bringing America back to a finically stable country. Now the interests on the debts we have just piled up would have to be worked on but all this is a huge + for America, bringing back our factories would help, Folks we need to do something about Homeland Security, disbanding it would be the best! We need to do something about the schools system and from what I see of the waist disbanding it too would be a start. Government waist and over government rule must stop, We need to get out of NATO and the UN and stop funding them as well as supplying troops for them, we are not the world police force and I for one do not want a American Union as a government, I like a sovereign America with closed borders, no loans to other countries till we are solvent and demand or subtract lone’s we have given to other nations in the past as due or subtract what we now owe them from our bill. Remove all NATO and foreign troops from America soil! all this would again bring huge amounts of cash back to America that interest and principle on the debts now owed could become much smaller and all with what we spend now. bring back our factories and start drilling for oil again, the EPA and other environmental agencies need to get a grip, they are forcing business out of the country, we need to protect nature to but we have to live and earn a living a compromise must be met. There is enough oil and natural gas in America alone to supply the American people for hundreds of years to come, we could stop all oil importation, with that our national debt and interest should go to about 0, We have the means, we need to change some things, this would bring about a healthy finically stable America, New energy technology is being developed and needs to be put on a high priority as some is about to come on line, or I live in a new oil development area, put gas powered electric plants right in the gas field, they are burning it off now, just letting it go, (no pipe line or way to store or transport it built yet) this burn off gas could be firing a power plant now, high capacity electric lines already pass through the area, and we have large wind farms with lines coming in. So what is the problem of some natural gas generators going in now, free electricity but for the cost of the generators, People it is there, all we need to do is use it, stop big oil and business from strangling us finically on artificial price increases, we can be talking about $1.00 fuel, gas and diesel now if we would. We can have People working again, and not that big of hit on the environment. Its government and big $ business that have us staving and scratching for a living now. The solutions are at our finger tips now, the solutions are there. Obama is here to destroy the American dollar and our country for a socialist American Union were the very rich make out on the everyday mans misery and loss of freedom, we have the best thing for a government and nation in the world, we have those who want to destroy it for their benefit only! We are being sold out and feed a line of horse shit.

    • RicknRedmond

      Oregon is one of the few states that does NOT have a sales tax. We make up for it with high property taxes. Oregon is no utopia. The liberals in the cities have overridden the common sense of the conservatives in the smaller towns and country and spent us into a quagmire like all the other states. So what did we do? Elected more Dems to carry on the joke. God help us all.

  • Ken Brody

    The inverse relationship between the strength of the dollar and the price of oil (say, WTI) is probably stronger than that for the CRB CC. Energy input is primary to the economy, while a the value of a fiat currency in real goods and services is a secondary indicator. Nevertheless, if you plot the Dollar Index vs WTI you will get a pretty good series of points running from top left to lower right on your chart, with a high correlation coefficient.

    The supply curve for oil is nearly horizontal (inelastic) and the demand curve is nearly vertical, so supply/demand variations are exaggerated in today’s market, and that will dilute the above correlation.

    Nevertheless, it’s the energy that swings the economy, not the money.

  • wayne

    I just heard on television that prices on wheat, coffee, sugar, rice, cereal and a few other things will be going up drastically in the near future. We will have to give special thanks to Obama, and the Democrats for this rise in food prices. I have also heard that the mortgage default is higher now than it was in 1933 (Great Depression) era. Another thanks to Obama and the Democrats. Liberals, are you listening!!!! Just think we have another two years to put up with this.

    • DaveH

      Not just the Democrats, Wayne, but Big Government in general.

  • http://FarTooMuch.Info Russ Lemon
  • eric

    unite America.Throw away our petty differences we are all gods children.Unite and take back the greatest country in the history of all time.We have been lied to, propagandized, made to look foolish.We must come together to destroy the left/right paradigm that is slowly killing us.For Heavens sake its 2011 don’t you think we should be getting better? Well guess what WERE NOT!!!!!!!! This country is almost dead.Our last chance is Dr.Ron Paul

    • http://gunner689 gunner689

      Eric; I wish what you say could be possible but reality has taught me that it’s not. The left progressives in this country are as dead set in their beliefs and attempts to destroy traditional America as we are to save it. We are in a cultural war to save America. Unfortunately the progressives, like enemies in a war, think they are on the right side, just as much as we know we are. I don’t know where, except maybe public schools, colleges, and the union mentality and propaganda their disconnect comes from. Much of it is nothing more than plain old class envy. I doubt we will ever reach common ground with them. if their effort succeeds America will become another second rate has-been country like most of the worlds other super-powers became. They are truly the domestic enemy that many of us took an oath to defend America from. Unfortunately, even though their numbers are small they have the gvt., the courts, and the media on their side. We must re-double our efforts, support the TEA Party Movement and vote good candidates into offices at all levels of gvt. Once elected we must watch them and hold their feet to the fire if they start to stray or get sucked into the machinery of big gvt. Any politician who supports any legislation against the Constitution must be voted out of office as soon as possible. God Bless and God Save America.

      • john franko

        if any of you reading these posts are confused about where america is heading, read and digest the wisdom of gunner689, particularly the line “they are the domestic enemy that many of us took an oath to defend america from.” there is no “playing nice” with a threat such as this. this includes RINO’s and true libs alike. the constitution is what propelled this country to prominence, and our adherence to it is the only way to preserve our liberties.

    • Not Perfect

      Dr. Ron Paul! A man with VISION! Give him a chance!

  • Not Perfect

    Do not forget what the PROGRESSIVES have done all that was passed all that was done to destroy this country. Wolves in Sheep’s clothing! Stay focused do not falter! Remember always never forget! If it’s UNCONSTITUTIONAL say so! Tell someone. Take back what was taken and then make examples of those who only care about one thing DICTATING instead of listening to their BOSSES! WE THE PEOPLE!

  • al rios

    APMEX is a great place to purchase precious metals using your worthless IRA account, before uncle Sam gets it.

  • bruce

    i bought gold when it was $300oz.,guns and land when the price was low. now i have live stock and can feed my family with what i can grow.i have been turning dollars into assets before they become worthless.

  • Greg



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