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More Phony Employment Numbers

December 11, 2012 by  

More Phony Employment Numbers
PHOTOS.COM

Statistician John Williams (shadowstats.com) calls the government’s latest jobs and unemployment reports “nonsense numbers.”

There are a number of ongoing problems with the released numbers. For example, the concurrent-seasonal factor adjustments are unstable. The birth-death model adds non-existent jobs each month that are then taken out in the annual downward benchmark revisions. Williams calculates that the job overstatement through November averages 45,000 monthly. In other words, employment gains during 2012 have been overstated by about 500,000 jobs. Another problem is that each month’s jobs number is boosted by downside revision of the previous month’s jobs number. Williams reports that the 146,000 new jobs reported for November “was after a significant downside revision to October’s reporting. Net of prior-period revisions, November’s seasonally-adjusted monthly gain was 97,000.”

Even if we believe the government that 146,000 new jobs materialized during November, that is the amount necessary to stay even with population growth and therefore could not be responsible for reducing the unemployment rate from 7.9 percent to 7.7 percent. The reduction is due to how the unemployed are counted.

The 7.7 percent rate is known as the “headline rate.” It is the rate you hear in the news. Its official designation is U.3.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has another official unemployment rate known as U.6.
The difference is that U.3 does not include discouraged workers who are not currently actively seeking a job. (A discouraged worker is a person who has given up looking for a job because there are no jobs to be found.) The U.6 measure includes workers who have been discouraged for less than one year. The U.6 rate of unemployment is 14.4 percent, about double the headline rate.

The U.6 rate does not include long-term discouraged workers, those who have been discouraged for more than one year. John Williams estimates this rate and reports the actual rate of unemployment (known as SGS) in November to be 22.9 percent.

In other words, the headline rate of unemployment is one-third the actual rate.

The drop in the November headline rate of unemployment from 7.9 percent to 7.7 percent is due to a 20.4 percent increase in the number of short-term discouraged workers in November. In other words, unemployed people rolled out of the U.3 measure into the U.6 measure.
Similarly, a number of short-term discouraged workers roll out of the U.6 measure into Williams’ measure that includes all of the unemployed. Williams reports that “with the continual rollover, the flow of headline workers continues into the short-term discouraged workers (U.6), and from U.6 into long term discouraged worker status (a ShadowStats.com measure), at what has been an accelerating pace. The aggregate November data show an increasing rate of individuals dropping out of the headline (U.3) labor force.” In other words, the headline rate of unemployment can drop even though the unemployed are having a harder time finding jobs.

The U.S. government simply lowers the unemployment rate by not counting all of the unemployed. We owe this innovation to the Administration of Bill Clinton. In 1994, the Clinton Administration redefined “discouraged workers” and limited this group to those who are discouraged for less than one year. Those discouraged for more than one year are no longer considered to be in the labor force and ceased to be counted as unemployed.

If the U.S. government will mislead the public about unemployment, it will also
mislead about Syria, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Somalia, Pakistan, Yemen, Lebanon, Palestine, Russia, China and 9/11. The government fits its story to its agenda.

A government that wants to cut the social safety net doesn’t want you to know that the unemployment rate is 22.9 percent. A government that wants to cut the social safety net when between one-fifth and one-fourth of the workforce is out of work looks hard-hearted, mean-spirited and foolish. But if the government reports only one-third of the unemployed and presents that rate as falling, then the government can present its cuts as prudent to avoid falling over a “fiscal cliff.”

If the “free and democratic” Americans cannot even find out what the unemployment rate is, how do they expect to find out about anything?

–Paul Craig Roberts

Paul Craig Roberts

was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy and associate editor of The Wall Street Journal. He was columnist for Business Week, Scripps Howard News Service, and Creators Syndicate. He has had many university appointments. His Internet columns have attracted a worldwide following, and can be accessed here.

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  • KG

    I remember the late 80′s. I was living in the deep South and due to the drop in oil prices in 1986, the “oil belt” in America was in a virtual Depression. And the Regan Administration kept saying unemployment was less than 7 to 8%. However, the real rate of unemployment was probably closer to 20 to 25%. Then the S&L crisis hit which was a major contribution to the recession of 1992.

    Now the problem is the fact that every policy that the Republicans wanted to enact are still in effect (low taxes). Although you may disagree, I think if you look honestly at the situation, we are paying LESS taxes ever, and yet have the WORSE economy ever. I know all of the “petite bourgeois” here think that “soaking the rich” is not the answer. However, the Voters spoke.

    Unless you want another “french” revolution.

    • Robespierre

      I would love to give you a French Revolution starting at the bottom with O’s minions

      • Robert Smith

        Sounds to me like you are spouting about a culture war.

        Rob

      • Gordon

        My state has officially and repeatedly said, “If you are not drawing an unemployment check, you are NOT unemployed.”

      • Gordon

        Our tri-county chamber of commerce says our unemployment rate is 31%. Last summer I worked a part time job 250 miles away at my self paid living expenses.

      • Mike in MI

        Well, if that DEEtroit Councilwoman who is demanding some “bacon” from Obama is any indice we may moments away from seeing a Japan style blow up on the DEE-troit Ribber with a lot of already polluted Down-river real estate ending up flowing over Niagra Falls.

        Now, that woman is REALLY BIG in DEE-troit politics and I ‘d be wary about getting between her and some “Bacon” . . . or, hell anything “porky”. Like, you don’t get between Chucky Shumer and a camera.
        She’s really going to be upset that Oflimmer-flammer already sent all her “fat-of-the-land” to Egypt, Libya, Mexico, Gaza and China in exchange for Moslem prayer beads, mosques and worshipers.

      • jt

        Robert Smith says: “Sounds to me like you are spouting about a culture war.”

        obama has been trying to incite (expand?) a culture war since he was but a chump in the world of Illinois thug politics. Now he’s doing the same thing as a chump in the world of global politics.

      • eddie47d

        Seems like Mike has his own little culture war going on.

    • chris

      KG,
      You left the last initial off your handle…”B”. The issue KG is the amount of government spending on programs of all shapes and sizes. As an add-on to this article, I would like to see the numbers of government jobs created over the past 4 years. Those jobs don’t just cost us now, but WAY into the future with their government pensions that we cannot afford. Government and private pension employees need to get their head wrapped around contributing(ie, SAVING!) for their own retirements. Get in the boat with the rest of America that takes responsibility for their future retirement needs instead of expecting it from someone else. This whole class warfare thing is a joke. The added taxes are wanted for no other reason than to push more stimulus and create some more government jobs. I’m a middle class just trying to make ends meet, but I don’t expect any handouts from anyone. Roll up your sleeves and get to work, America…we need to save ourselves, no other country is going to do it for us!

      • alx47

        well said

      • Flashy

        Easily done for the government figures. let’s compare government employment during Reagan to President Obama.

        Under Reagan, government employment increased by 100,000 at the federal level, increased by 100,000 at the state level, and was flat at the local level. THAT was how Reagan attacked the recessions during his eight years. Those are the final fgures BTW, not the temporary figures showing spikes during the recessions of the reagan Era (he had three)

        During Obama’s first term…ready?

        Federal employment is flat lined, state government employment down 120,000, and local government employment down 500,000.

        Chew on them numbers for awhile before attacking this administration with false claims of government growth …….

      • eddie47d

        That all sounds good Chris until you look at the real facts as Flashy pointed out. Lets concentrate on what Republicans and Conservatives ALWAYS say. “Let private businesses create jobs” . Okay where are they They say lower taxes create jobs. Well taxes are fairly low as they were between 2003 and 2012. So where are the jobs? Sure taxes are going up next year but job seekers can’t wait forever in expecting those private enterprise businesses to open up. You won’t let the government provide jobs and you can’t get the private companies to pony up for the unemployed so that puts everyone between a rock and a hard place. Higher education is becoming out of reach because they have become a big business of there own . Their administrations pay themselves very well yet where are the job creators who are supposed to be churned out?

      • vippy1

        47 % are looking for jobs, on food stamps, because there are no jobs. Try looking for one and then get back to me.

      • Mikey

        Flashy, please cite your sources. Where do you get those numbers?

      • phideaux

        Given Flashy’s past history and reputation he probably pulled them out of his [COMMENT HAS BEEN EDITED]

      • Sol of Texas

        Yup — Flashy just makes up stats … that’s exactly why there are no citations.

      • DaveH

        Eddie says — “Lets concentrate on what Republicans and Conservatives ALWAYS say. “Let private businesses create jobs”. . Okay where are they?”
        Eddie implies that Big Government creates jobs. Okay, where are they?

        Eddie says — “They say lower taxes create jobs. Well taxes are fairly low as they were between 2003 and 2012. So where are the jobs?”.
        To start, when Eddie says taxes are fairly low, which “taxes” are he referring to? Income Taxes, Excise Taxes, Property Taxes, Inheritance Taxes, or any of the other myriad Taxes that Big Government heaps on us? It is a much more complex problem than Liberal Progressives can grasp.
        It’s Not the Taxes that are most important, rather it’s the Spending. And as you can see from this chart Federal Government Spending has been increasing dramatically over the years:
        http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/spending_chart_1950_2011USb_13s1li011tcn_F1f
        So, where are the jobs with all that Government Spending?

      • Mike in MI

        R-R-I-I-i-ght, Fleshman, and that’s why the population of Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax, VA – all of Maryland and out into W. Virginia is growing faster than the Muslims in Europe – and just as volatile. (‘Cause the fed is going to run out of anything of value…except “Oblamer-talk”).

      • DaveH

        Those readers who would actually like to remove the blinders and learn how Big Government destroys jobs, rather than creates them, can read Chapter 1 “Labor: Workers Of The World Unite — and Shoot Yourselves In The Foot”.
        http://library.mises.org/books/Kel%20Kelly/The%20Case%20for%20Legalizing%20Capitalism.pdf

      • phideaux

        Hey Flashy you claim federal employment has flatlined…I say you are a lier because these numbers say different.

        “…we turned to data from the Office of Personnel Management on the number of federal employees from 1998 to 2011. As the chart below shows, the number of federal employees has clearly been trending upward in recent years: from September 2007 to September 2011, the number of federal employees increased by 267,885, or 14.4%.

      • Mike in MI

        DaveH –
        Or for a more graphic presentation, go to DEEtroit and take a tour of the downtown and surrounding areas – if you can negotiate the government funded U.S. Rutways that were “fixed” by Obama’s Stimulus programs.

      • DaveH

        It’s instructive to look at the five countries which are the most Economically Free (Smallest Governments), as ranked by Heritage Foundation, and their Unemployment Rates:
        1) Hong Kong — 3.3%
        2) Singapore — 1.9%
        3) Australia — 5.2%
        4) New Zealand — 6.8%
        5) Switzerland — 3.1%

        and some countries which are the least Economically Free (Biggest Governments), and their Unemployment rates:
        171) Iran — 11.5%
        173) Burma — 4.9%
        174) Venezuela — 8.3%
        176) Libya — 13%
        178) Zimbabwe — 70%

      • ranger09

        Very Good

      • Joe Hammond

        Someone has to pay for the jobs in the military-industrial complex. Those jobs exist due to taxes. Military spending comes from tax monies or borrowing from China. We spend more on weapons than the next 10 nations plus combined. Why? Who can invade us from across the Pacific or the Atlantic? Where are the ships that will keep invading armies supplied against the economic power of the US war machine? How many aircraft carriers are necessary to protect our shores?

        Smedley Butler was right when he wrote “War is a Racket”. The Us needs to always have a war in order to justify the massive expenditure of monies in a non-productive format (unless your job depends on the Department of War budget).

        Once the USSR was the evil empire. WE seem to have taken that title for ourselves now….

      • larry ryan

        Flashy and others have either missed or ignored the point. The government LIES. It’s the goverment go-to response, always. In this case, unemployment. If a person is not employed and wishes to be then he/she is unemployed and should be counted as such. Only two type of unemployed should not be counted, those who genuinely (for whatever reason) don’t want a job and the retired. BTW retired by choice, not circumstance. The article’s point is that no matter what the subject…jobs, war, taxes, etc. the government will lie as natural as breathing. They even justify it. Remember the Tom Cruise, Jack Nicholson scene? “You want the truth? You can’t handle the truth!” Those supercilious elitist, smartest-in-the-room pieces of subhuman slime really believe that.

    • http://notapplicable John

      You sound just like a communist KG! Why is the economy all of Bush’s fault for Obama yet the first few years of Reagan’s Presidency is Reagan’s fault? Reagan inherited a worse situation than Obama by far. Just check out the numbers. Socialism does not work! The recent problem of the housing bubble can be mostly blamed on Carter, Clinton, Barney Frank and yes a Republican Lindsey Graham. Let’s really be honest, there is plenty of blame to go around. We are losing our freedoms KG due to people relying on the government. Don’t you see that throughout history all governments are evil or tends toward evil. That is why I switched many years ago from being a liberal to being a conservative. I know that we all need some government, but the best government is the smallest government. Even Putin warned the US not to go down the road of socialism, as it did not work in the former Soviet Union. Even Castro said it did not work in Cuba. Capitalism is not perfect, but it is the best system to raise the most people to a respectable living. Please look at Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and China to see that they are doing well because of capitalism. Look at Europe and their socialism. Are they doing great? We once were until the people here started voting to take money from those that are successful to those that are not. That system is not fair either as it is thievery and is parasitic on others. You may say it is greed, but I tell you the greediest people I know are the people that want something for nothing. In addition envy and jealousy are just as bad a greed.

      • tlc1944

        The greediest is the government.

      • metalflyer11

        Well said, but the biggest parasites of them all are the Power Elite(The Rubber Barons). These are the real enemies and traitors of humanity. They control the governments that imposes the taxes on all of us and at the end of the day 99% of the wealth stollen from the people is directed to them, leaving the 1% for the leaches begging for more socialism & entitlements.

    • john

      The”rich” have money that you have no right to steal,the downfall of America is in your thought that you can help yourself to others goods through the Obamas of the world.Rich people are moving targets and they will not keep being raped and smile about it.Get your own wealth thieves.

      • Flashy

        Seing as the “rich” have gotten richer since Reagan, and the 99% have gotten poorer, what’s the basis for your point they got “raped” ? The only ones “raped” by the programs foisted on us by the Conservatives has been the Middle Class..and the only “redistribution” of wealth has been from the Middle Class to the rich.

      • http://personalliberty hangman

        John, you have said just how I feel. America has been declining , mostly because we have too many with the ‘you owes it to me’ menatity. Maybe we need to go back to the plantation days, where you worked or got ‘counceled’.Now, with about 90% of a certain,’minority’ , and 99% of the wetbacks, all wanting free every thing, including Obama
        phones, the gays wanting special favors, and the women wanting FREE condoms, and the mus-slumics not bound by the laws that every other citizen has to abide by, we are in a downward spiral, It is time for America to act like the country folks of yesteryear, and get buzy and work for what you get. not just sit around waiting for the mailman to bring the ‘benefits’. Stop being parasites, grow a pair, and you will actually feel better about yourself, without having to burn some ‘herbs’.

      • RD

        Amen !!! Very well said that is in fact what is going on and these liberals can always find another liberals false numbers and talking points to spout the difference is its still a flat out lie. These fools need to take a long look at history, socialism, communism nor Marxism works its been proven so all you liberals get out there and start earning you own stuff or do the hell without. When I can’t afford something I do without and you should do the same. Funny thing look at these folks that are on the government dole they have smart phones, xboxes and all kinds of other things so if they are so broke where are they getting this stuff? Sarcasm I know where they are getting it, we are all paying for it with xtra fees being added to our phone bills for instance. My phone bill is so dam expensive I’m lucky to still have one myself and have started thinking about cutting back on it.

    • http://www.facebook.com/vanessa.alfonso.355 Vanessa Alfonso

      All I can tell you is we would have never afforded a house or anything else under clintons tax rates. Our w2 may say we made 75,000.00 but after all the fees and taxes we feel “broke” all the time. How does this happen. Oh by the way no children to drain money from everyone else and we are married. Thats the problem for sure.

      • vippy1

        I bought a house in 1978 and my interest rate was 9.75 % and at the time I was making 3.50 per hour. My husband got out of the military and got a hourly wage job and we paid off the house in 2000, I remember always having to pay extra taxes each year when Clinton was in office, never was able to afford extras like vacations, etc.

    • Warrior

      Here in ILL, we are NOT paying lower taxes, in fact, the taxes here are the highest they have ever been and there is no sign of the Taxes going anywhere but UP. All brought to us by “PUBLIC SECTOR” (patronage) unfunded liabilities i.e. EARLY RETIREMENTS or 60 years of democrapic control. Now the Dolts are convinced, oblama is going to shovel the cash their way. Why right here in chicago, the policeman were promised a $9 match for every dollar they contributed to their retirement however that Match didn’t materialize. Property taxes and state income taxes have skyrocketed under the “progessive” regime. The only people that can retire are the gubmint teet suckers and the dead! “Progressives” are professional liars.

      • eddie47d

        If you want lower taxes then how could there be a 9-1 match in anyone’s retirement benefit? In order to pay for that you’d have to raise taxes through the roof. Someone must have been sleeping when that was approved. Our state pension fund PERA was over bloated too but nothing near that ratio.

      • Mikey

        Warrior, I feel your pain. I live in California where the taxes are the highest in the nation. And, we are about to get a tax INCREASE! More and more people are leaving the state for that reason, so there are even less people to take the taxes from. It’s kind of a snowball situation, and it’s going to continue to get worse. Thanks all you tax-and-spend politicians, you really suck!

      • Mike in MI

        Hey eddie47 -
        did ya hear the good news? Michigan’s House of Reps boldly passed the Right To Work legislation. Maybe, finally Michigan can begin to crawl out of the malaise we’ve been buried in by the Unions and their budget busting friends for the last 14 years who control the Democrat party. DEEtroit finally emptied out enough of the ne’r-do-well union bosses that there wasn’t even a way for The Purple Mob to stay employed anymore.

        If any of you liberals are so convinced the bosses at the pinnacle of your sludge mound are going to make sure you get taken care of … just go take a tour of DEEtroit, beautifull, downtown DEEtroit (yeah, right). One of the places the unions and Progressivism in this country were founded, funded and – now-foundered.

      • eddie47d

        That is terrible news Mikey of Michigan. Unions brought us the Middle Class and good paying jobs. It was management in Detroit and elsewhere that demanded multi million dollar salaries. It was management who dropped the ball and produced crappy cars. It was management who didn’t listen to the American people and the American people switched to Japanese models. It was management who for years refused to produce cars with better mileage. It was management who shot themselves in the foot and created your run down Detroit. You’re pathetic and deserve the the Corporates who bludgeoned this country to death with golden parachute packages.

      • JeffH

        Mikey, ain’t that the truth. I’m in Fresno and grew up & lived in the bay area for 59 year and it’s down right disgusting to live with and see just what the progressives, unions and the environmental extremists have done for the “Golden” state. There’s virtually no industry anymore. For decades the Democrat controlled legislature has been choking the life out of this state and I don’t foresee anything positive ahead…and then they re-elect Moonbeam and his Prop 30 tax increase. Too bad most of the wealthy won’t stick around and get stuck. Revenues are way down and will continue to spiral out of control…can you say “BANKRUPTCY”?

        FYI, here’s a link to a commentary by Congressman Devin Nunes, that was printed in the Fresno Bee, who resonded to an article in the Washington Times that recently announced that things are looking up in California now that we’ve approved the Prop. 30 tax hike.

        Gov. Jerry Brown has cited a $28 billion “wall of debt,” the State Budget Crisis Task Force found California’s real debt is far worse, somewhere between $167 billion and $335 billion.

        The result of this debt, over-taxation, and over-regulation: California’s 10.2% unemployment rate is the third-worst in the nation, and a new Census Bureau report found California has the highest poverty rate of all fifty states.

        Nunes is speaking in real terms, not in utopian progressive terms.
        http://www.fresnobee.com/2012/11/30/3084062/devin-nunes-californias-day-of.html

      • JeffH

        Mike in MI…the union thugs are out in force threatening everone that shows support for the “right to work”.

      • eddie47d

        Go back to supporting your fascist corporate “thugs” Jeff. You seem to be in bed with those crony capitalists anyway.

    • http://uncleteddysreeducationcamp.com teddy maher

      Thanks for the trip down memory lane,let us not forget that recession in the oil industry usually benefits a multitude of other businesses…. What we have today is not a recession it is a depression which is largely a result of abusive oil prices and a government out of control with not only regulation coupled with irresponsible spending but a love affair with the poor ,the lazy and a bunch of seasoned slicks collecting abusive pensions for government tenure…

    • Rod

      We will never have another French revolution in this country. Most Americans have become too soft, lazy and scared of the government.

    • DaveH

      KG says — “And the Regan Administration kept saying unemployment was less than 7 to 8%. However, the real rate of unemployment was probably closer to 20 to 25%”.
      Highest non-farm employment level during Carter’s term (Jan 1981) — 91,031,000.
      Total non-farm employment when Reagan took office (Jan 1981) — 91,031,000.
      Lowest non-farm employment during Reagan’s terms (Dec 1982) — 88,756,000.
      Total non-farm employment in Reagan’s last month (Jan 1988) — 107,133,000.

    • DaveH

      KG says — “Although you may disagree, I think if you look honestly at the situation, we are paying LESS taxes ever, and yet have the WORSE economy ever”.

      It’s the Spending that matters. How they fund that Spending makes little difference in the long run. They can fund it with direct taxes on the generation of people who voted for the Spenders, or they can fund it with future burdens on the children who didn’t get a vote in the matter, or they can fund it with the hidden tax of inflation caused by the Federal Reserve creating new money with which to fund the Government’s debt (monetizing the debt). No matter how they fund it, it hurts the rest of the people.
      And here is a chart of the Federal Government Spending since 1950:
      http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/spending_chart_1950_2011USb_13s1li011tcn_F1f

      In 1950 the Federal Government spent 15% of the US GDP.
      In 2011 the Federal Government spent 24% of the US GDP.

      Does that sound like LESS to anybody?

      • DaveH

        Above all, don’t let the Progressive Shills turn it into a partisan issue. They love for the people to root for one team or the other while both teams are stealing their money.
        It’s a Big Government issue. And our economy will continue to degenerate until people break free of the Two Party Paradigm and start voting only for Politicians who promise to (and keep their promises) shrink Government dramatically.

      • BigBadJohn

        Thanks for the chart Dave – it clearly shows who increased spending the most!

      • DaveH

        Yes, John, it was Big Government. Which of the two major Parties was most guilty in that would be inconsequential and very difficult to analyze.

    • Mikey

      We can take a lesson from history. Every time there has only been the very rich and the very poor, there has been revolution. And our country is headed that way now. The banksters, politicians, mega-corporations, and other elite are getting richer by the day, while the middle class is being screwed by both higher living costs and higher taxes. Soon the middle class will exist no more, and most will join the ranks of the poor.
      And we have BOTH corrupt parties to blame.

      • ranger09

        Mikey, SO TRUE. AND YET WE JUST KEEP ON FOLLOWING THE BELL

    • GALT

      Not that facts actually matter…..but the longest time between recessions before

      the Great Depression was 3 years and 8 months……..with the exception
      of the 6 years, after the “constitution” was “ratified”……..

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States

      • GALT

        Which included his bit of fun…….

        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_Depression

      • DaveH

        From Murray Rothbard’s “A History of Money and Banking in the United States”:
        “Orthodox economic historians have long complained about the “great depression” that is supposed to have struck the United States in the panic of 1873 and lasted for an unprecedented
        six years, until 1879. Much of this stagnation is supposed to have been caused by a monetary contraction leading to the resumption of specie payments in 1879. Yet what sort of “depression” is it which saw an extraordinarily large expansion of industry, of railroads, of physical output, of net national product, or real per capita income? As Friedman and Schwartz admit, the decade from 1869 to 1879 saw a 3-percent-per annum increase in money national product, an outstanding real national product growth of 6.8 percent per year in this period, and a phenomenal rise of 4.5 percent per year in real product per capita. Even the alleged “monetary contraction”
        never took place, the money supply increasing by 2.7 percent per year in this period. From 1873 through 1878, before another spurt of monetary expansion, the total supply of bank money rose from $1.964 billion to $2.221 billion—a rise of 13.1 percent or 2.6 percent per year. In short, a modest but definite rise, and scarcely a contraction.
        It should be clear, then, that the “great depression” of the 1870s is merely a myth—a myth brought about by misinterpretation of the fact that prices in general fell sharply during the entire period. Indeed they fell from the end of the Civil War until 1879. Friedman and Schwartz estimated that prices in general fell from 1869 to 1879 by 3.8 percent per annum. Unfortunately, most historians and economists are conditioned to believe that steadily and sharply falling prices must result in depression:
        hence their amazement at the obvious prosperity and economic growth during this era. For they have overlooked the fact that in the natural course of events, when government and the banking
        system do not increase the money supply very rapidly, freemarket capitalism will result in an increase of production and economic growth so great as to swamp the increase of money supply. Prices will fall, and the consequences will be not depression or stagnation, but prosperity (since costs are falling, too) economic growth, and the spread of the increased living standard
        to all the consumers.”

        http://mises.org/Books/historyofmoney.pdf

      • GALT

        So, none of THIS actually happened, right DavidH?

        In the United States, the Long Depression began with the Panic of 1873. The National Bureau of Economic Research dates the contraction following the panic as lasting from October 1873 to March 1879. At 65 months, it is the longest-lasting contraction identified by the NBER, eclipsing the Great Depression’s 43 months of contraction.[5][24] Figures from Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz show net national product increased 3 percent per year from 1869 to 1879 and real national product grew at 6.8 percent per year during that time frame.[25] However, since between 1869 and 1879 the population of the United States increased by over seventeen and one-half percent,[26] per capita NNP growth was lower. Following the end of the episode in 1879, the U.S. economy would remain unstable, experiencing recessions for 114 of the 253 months until January 1901.[5]
        The dramatic shift in prices mauled nominal wages – in the United States, nominal wages declined by one-quarter during the 1870s,[10] and as much as one-half in some places, such as Pennsylvania.[27] Although real wages had enjoyed robust growth in the aftermath of the American Civil War, increasing by nearly a quarter between 1865 and 1873, they stagnated until the 1880s, posting no real growth, before resuming their robust rate of expansion in the later 1880s.[28] The collapse of cotton prices devastated the already war-ravaged economy of the southern United States.[13] Although farm prices fell dramatically, American agriculture continued to expand production.[23]
        Thousands of American businesses failed, defaulting on more than a billion dollars of debt.[27] One in four laborers in New York were out of work in the winter of 1873-1874[27] and, nationally, a million became unemployed.[27]
        The sectors which experienced the most severe declines in output were manufacturing, construction, and railroads.[23] The railroads had been a tremendous engine of growth in the years before the crisis, yielding a 50% increase in railroad mileage from 1867 to 1873.[23] After absorbing as much as 20% of US capital investment in the years preceding the crash, this expansion came to a dramatic end in 1873; between 1873 and 1878, the total amount of railroad mileage in the United States barely increased at all.[23]
        The Freedman’s Savings Bank was a typical casualty of the financial crisis. Chartered in 1865 in the aftermath of the American Civil War, the bank had been established to advance the economic welfare of America’s newly emancipated freedmen.[29] In the early 1870s, the bank had joined in the speculative fever, investing in real estate and unsecured loans to railroads; its collapse in 1874 was a severe blow to African-Americans.[29]
        The recession exacted a harsh political toll on President Ulysses S. Grant. Historian Allan Nevins says of the end of Grant’s presidency:[30]
        Various administrations have closed in gloom and weakness … but no other has closed in such paralysis and discredit as (in all domestic fields) did Grant’s. The President was without policies or popular support. He was compelled to remake his Cabinet under a grueling fire from reformers and investigators; half its members were utterly inexperienced, several others discredited, one was even disgraced. The personnel of the departments was largely demoralized. The party that autumn appealed for votes on the implicit ground that the next Administration would be totally unlike the one in office. In its centennial year, a year of deepest economic depression, the nation drifted almost rudderless.[30]
        Recovery began in 1878. The mileage of railroad track laid down increased from 2,665 mi (4,289 km) in 1878 to 11,568 in 1882.[23] Construction began recovery by 1879; the value of building permits increased two and a half times between 1878 and 1883, and unemployment fell to 2.5% in spite of (or perhaps facilitated by) high immigration.[20]
        The recovery, however, proved short-lived. Business profits declined steeply between 1882 and 1884.[20] The recovery in railroad construction reversed itself, falling from 11,569 mi (18,619 km) of track laid in 1882 to 2,866 mi (4,612 km) of track laid in 1885; the price of steel rails collapsed from $71/ton in 1880 to $20/ton in 1884.[20] Manufacturing again collapsed – durable goods output fell by a quarter again.[20] The decline became another financial crisis in 1884, when multiple New York banks collapsed; simultaneously, in 1883-1884, tens of millions of dollars of foreign-owned American securities were sold out of fears that the United States was preparing to abandon the gold standard.[20] This financial panic destroyed eleven New York banks, more than a hundred state banks, and led to defaults on at least $32 million worth of debt.[20] Unemployment, which had stood at 2.5% between recessions, surged to 7.5% in 1884-1885, and 13% in the northeastern United States, even as immigration plunged in response to deteriorating labor markets.[20]
        This second recession led to further deterioration of farm prices. Kansas farmers burned their own corn in 1885 because it was worth less than other fuels such as coal or wood.[20] The country began to recover in 1885.[20]

      • DaveH

        Figures don’t lie, but liars can figure.

      • DaveH

        I don’t suppose it would occur to you, Galt, that Court Historians (those promoted and accepted by Big Government Leaders) would be both biased towards Big Government and not educated in Real Economics (not the Court variety)?
        Those who are unsure should read the whole book “A History of Money and Banking in the United States” so as to understand just how scholarly the author Murray Rothbard is, and how little they know about the History of our country and it’s self-serving Politicians.
        And read this:
        http://wiki.mises.org/wiki/Murray_Rothbard

      • GALT

        So none of that actually happened, DavidH? Was the question too hard?

        I don’t suppose that the simplest explanation for why “economists” never
        seem to get “economics” right, or make it work…….is because there is
        nothing to “get right” that would make it work?

        Too simple, too easy, explains everything that has ever happened and
        couldn’t possibly be TRUE!

        You gotta love the sheer logic and reason involved, huh?

      • DaveH

        Galt says — “So none of that actually happened, DavidH? Was the question too hard?”.
        So Galt does a cut and paste from Wikipedia and thinks he’s a wizard.
        My question, Galt, is why the cut and paste when you provided a link to the same article in your earlier comment? Kind of redundant, wasn’t it?
        The answer to your question is I don’t know. Neither do you. You’re just taking it on faith from a website that Liberal Progressives usually cite as unreliable when it goes contrary to their agenda.
        What I do know is that Murray Rothbard was a very Principled and very Educated man, being well-versed in several disciplines including history and economics. And I also know that Government is quite adept at putting out propaganda such as “Honest Abe”, and the “unprovoked” Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, and the attack on the Non-Contraband-carrying Lusitania, etc. etc.
        I would take Murray’s word over that of a Court Historian any day of the week. And I would take just about anybody’s word over that of a Liberal Progressive.
        As far as economists never getting it right, here is an Austrian Economist schooling Arthur Laffer in 2006 on the coming collapse which Arthur vehemently disputed:
        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfascZSTU4o

        I could care less if you ever learn anything, Galt, but there are plenty of people out there who will be reading articles and books by the Austrian Economists and once they do the Government game will become very clear to them.

      • GALT

        To be expected from a 50,000 year old brain stimulated by shiny objects…….
        and needing to hold them?

        You need or want someone to think for you…..and you are free to choose.

        If following dead people is what you are into……go for it.

        Eventually you will achieve equal status.

      • GALT

        Redundant, DavidH?

        You are a “willfully ignorant, functional illiterate”.

        You therefore DO NOT comprehend what you read.

        I was simply demonstrating the point. ( and now I know you read it )

        The little number thingy’s are sources…….( which you could refute with “specific”
        von mises links…….after 20 years, you would think their database and search engines
        would have precise “refutations” of all this nonsense……like your claim that “no
        central banker would ever advocate for the gold standard”…..and the actual history
        covered in The Lords of Finance…..for which you have no von mises link? )

        But what is REDUNDANT is having to ask AGAIN……

        Did these things not HAPPEN?

    • HotShot

      KG, have you looked beyond your idiot box, I mean your TV. Expansion of the money supply is the only way that we side into recessions or worst. Meaning housing turn-downs are caused by people paying 200K for a 150K house. Where did the extra 50K come from, ummm, thin air, Yes it did? Inflation thats unsustainable, and caused by new cheap money flooding the market. Lets not blame the parties, their both trying hard to destroy the American economy as quickly as possible.

    • Ranchman

      The voters spoke? There was such a massive amount of fraud in the 2012 general election, especially in each of the “battleground” states, that it’s impossible to say Obama even truthfully won that election let alone has his much vaunted “mandate.” Yet both sides, Democrats & Republicans, are revamping their platforms accordingly. The Repub’s, for instance, are saying that they need to agree to higher taxes and immigration reform because that’s what a majority of the population wants. They’re throwing their base, all of the loyal Conservatives who have stuck by them even though they’re spineless, under the bus on account of lies and deceit in the electoral process. Meanwhile, the Dem’s have deluded themselves into believing they have some that mandate for their messiah to do whatever he wishes. Never before has the American political machine been so out of touch with the true desires of the American people. They’ve been out of touch before, don’t get me wrong, but now it seems as if the crazy train has left the station and jumped the tracks. We are on a collision course with a massive economic collapse the likes of which has never been seen before, accompanied with civil unrest which will make the Sixties look like a Southern BBQ and Washington can’t even agree on what day it is. America is facing threats from every angle-financial, man-made, and natural-while our nation is divided along more lines than at any other time in our history. We need to start realizing that the govt wants us fighting amongst ourselves so we don’t see that it’s their fault this is all happening. Remember, nothing happens in govt that isn’t fully planned and well thought out…nothing!

      Remember 1776 & Keep Your Powder Dry!

    • http://personallibertydigest T

      Raising taxes won’t help. None of our tax dollars pay for the services that citizens get. Check into “The Grace Commission”. We have a major spending problem, not a “revenue” (a term now used in place of theft (tax) problem. That is why we are $16 Trillion in debt. Tax “revenues” don’t begin to cover the debt, only the interest on it. We give so much to other countries, billions in fact, maybe even trillions. Then politicians want us to pay more so US citizens can have something. Don’t be fooled by the dem vs repub side show. At a dollar a second we will pay the debt in a little over 500,000 years. Monopoly $$ (federal reserve notes) is the vehicle that is used to steal our freedom.

    • http://personallibertydigest Mr T

      KG, Raising taxes won’t help. None of our tax dollars pay for the services that citizens get. Check into “The Grace Commission”. We have a major spending problem, not a “revenue” (a term now used in place of theft (tax) problem. That is why we are $16 Trillion in debt. Tax “revenues” don’t begin to cover the debt, only the interest on it. We give so much to other countries, billions in fact, maybe even trillions. Then politicians want us to pay more so US citizens can have something. Don’t be fooled by the dem vs repub side show. At a dollar a second we will pay the debt in a little over 500,000 years. Monopoly $$ (federal reserve notes) is the vehicle that is used to steal our freedom

  • Flashy

    the article totally misuses the use of statistics. The base formula has remained unchanged. It is the same as the baseline used four years ago, ten years ago, etc. Statistics are rarely reliable unless the data collection is transparent acknowledging the transparency and flaws inherent in any such system. By citing the U6 numbers and reading the reports, this is present.

    The DOW is not accurate as giving data on the halth of corporate America. Nor of the stock market as a whole. Too small, made up of the largest corporations, it is never used by analysts in deciding portfolios. (If my stock analyst mentioned the DOW as one of his indicators of anything but public sentiment, he’s be my “former” stock analyst)

    The best (and those using the data use it as)? Comparison and looking for trends. Same as watching the DOW for stocks.

    The private numbers for employment..such as the oft cited ADP numbers, is a reliable indicator of economic growth and activity. The more consumers having jobs, the more jobs created (get that? The CONSUMER ..the wage earner…the job creators..the makers)

    Everyone knows the numbers don’t show the complete picture. It was never intended to. It’s not the issue this administration created. Through Congress..in every debate, both the left and the right cite the numbers and then add they don’t show the real extent of the jobs situation.

    What it does show is that Congress has failed. the Right and the wacked TP contingent in the House have turned their backs on America for the sake of a misplaced ideological crusade.

    The GOP and the conservative since 1981 have given us this situation…..it hit full realization in 2008. To rebuild America will take more than four years and will also require a Congress which deals with the interests of America in the forefront…not protecting the wealthy, not attacking the Middle Class, and not by going on some tangent for ideological purity…

    • http://notapplicable John

      Flashy. There is plenty of blame to go around for both sides, but the liberal ideology in this country has done far more damage that the conservatives or Republicans. And the Tea Party stands for paying as you go, something Obama even said in a debate with Ms. Clinton. Yet does he pay as we go? Of course not. He is a socialist at best and a communist at worst. Birds of a feather flock together and Obama is surrounded by socialists and communists. Obama wants power over people and he uses class warfare to get people like you to believe the rich and successful are bad and are not fair, just like Mao Tse Tung. Life is not fair and never will be. Some people are ambitious; some people like to work; some people are lazy; some people are smart. I work 50 to 60 hours per week while my sister works part-time because she wants to. Yet she feels I need to help her because I have more. Actually I do some, but it is never enough for her. Why do I have to work long hours then give her help while she watches too much TV plays with her friends, etc? I see this all the time in people that have little. You can’t legislate poor people to a middle class level by punishing the successful. Socialism does not work and that is where the Democrats have been taking us for 100 years, a step at a time. You will be sorry when there is no freedom left and the big bad government tells you what to do at every turn.

      • eddie47d

        So are you saying your sister is the communist in your family? Its always interesting in who is doing the most economic damages the Democrats or Republicans. You say Democrats and I would say Republicans so is there really much difference.

      • tlc1944

        “You cannot help the poor by destroying the rich. You cannot strengthen the weak by weakening the strong. You cannot bring about prosperity by discouraging thrift. You cannot lift the wage earner up by pulling the wage payer down. You cannot further the brotherhood of man by inciting class hatred. You cannot build character and courage by taking away people’s initiative and independence. You cannot help people permanently by doing for them, what they could and should do for themselves.” –Abraham Lincoln Although this is usually quoted as something Lincoln said, it was actually Rev. William John Henry Boetcker. But regardless who said it, it still is correct and the best support on the conservative viewpoint.

      • Right Brain Thinker

        John,

        We have heard nearly these exact same words perhaps hundreds of times over the past four years. You have won the “Parrot of the Day” award for your “contribution”. And you might check your facts—-the “march to socialism” is generally said to have begun with FDR only about 80 years ago.

      • Right Brain Thinker

        Tic,
        I’m glad to see that you did NOT attribute this quote to Lincoln but identified the correct author—-most “conservatives” don’t do that.

        You say, “But regardless who said it, it still is correct and the best support on the conservative viewpoint”.

        If the “conservative viewpoint” is one that distorts reality and propagandizes in the name of “supporting” a negative and biased viewpoint, I guess you’re correct.

      • Mikey

        Well put TLC1944, history has shown that a strong work-ethic brings about a better life. Unfortunately, there are some who will never get it, and will remain miserable, whining, parasites to our society. Heck, just look at some of the post on this site!

      • Bill

        TLC,
        Lincoln did say “Things may come to those who wait, but only the things left by those who hustle”.

      • DaveH

        RBT says — “I’m glad to see that you did NOT attribute this quote to Lincoln but identified the correct author—-most “conservatives” don’t do that”.
        Most conservatives don’t do that? What is your source for that claim, RBT? Is it just personal observation? If so, what is your sample size?
        You call yourself a “Thinker”? What a joke.

      • eddie47d

        When unions were strong in America the nation was strong. Now the unions are weak and the country is weak. Take your blinders off for its not the unions screwing America!

      • Right Brain Thinker

        DaveH says: “Most conservatives don’t do that? What is your source for that claim, RBT? Is it just personal observation? If so, what is your sample size? You call yourself a “Thinker”? What a joke.

        You’re the joke, Dave. Everyone is laughing at you and you don’t even realize it. You are probably saying to yourself right now:

        “RBT says they’re laughing at ME? That’s not possible! I am SO clever. I follow RBT around and STUPIDLY nip at his heels every chance I get, and I JUST KNOW I MAKE RBT CRAZY!!!! HA HA HA AND THEY’RE COMING TO GET HIM!”.

        Keep it coming Dave—–I LMAO at you as do any other “thinkers” on this site—-maybe some day you’ll realize that and stop embarrassing yourself..

      • DaveH

        Unionists thrive on coercion, Eddie. Without it, they would be paid what they’re worth, like everybody else. If you’re one of those who believes that it’s okay to gang up and take property from people, then you will like Unions. If you’re not, you won’t.

      • eddie47d

        You keep sleeping with crony capitalism Dave so enjoy that utopia of greed!

    • DaveH

      Flashman says — “the article totally misuses the use of statistics. The base formula has remained unchanged”.
      John Williams says — “The seasonally-adjusted SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated long-term discouraged workers, who were defined out of official existence in 1994. That estimate is added to the BLS estimate of U-6 unemployment, which includes short-term discouraged workers”.
      http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts

      Who are we to believe — Flashman, a proven liar, or John Williams, a professional economist?

      • Flashy

        Ummmm…care to quote me correctly there DaveyH?

        ” It is the same as the baseline used four years ago, ten years ago, etc.”

        now…since by your own words it remains as it was since 1994 …and such is well past 10 years ago ….

        but that’s OK. You parrot the TP standards. Such would be characterized as truth matters not, whatever can be taken out of context will, and reasoning shall be attacked for lacking proof. Above all…do not think, thinking is dangerous to the TP Cause.

      • DaveH

        I did quote you directly, Flashman.
        So what you’re asking is — did I quote all of your equivocal comment?
        The readers can decide if you’re being genuine or purposely misleading. I know it is the latter.

      • Right Brain Thinker

        Dave asks, “Who are we to believe — Flashman, a proven liar, or John Williams, a professional economist?”

        I would first ask Dave who has proven Flashman to be a liar. Certainly not DaveH, who has proven nothing much of anything to anyone on this site except that he is often delusional.

        Dave cites John Williams, a “professional economist”, as someone who is worthy of belief. He refers to William John Williams (who says call me “John”). “John” is hardly a “professional economist”, since he appears to have never taught, never written any scholarly articles or books, and never won any prizes or recognition for his economic thoughts. He makes his money selling subscriptions to his newsletter. He is in the same business as Bob Livingston, and you may have noticed that Bob has defended “John” rather vigorously in several comments. Birds of a feather?

        “John” is very hard to find information about—-he is most certainly “not like anywhere else on the internet”, but not for the pumped up reasons Bob L gives. “John” is a very dim “shining light” that seems to have dropped back to a position of shilling newsletter subscriptions to the paranoid and conspiracy believers when he couldn’t succeed in the mainstream. I could find evidence of only 1 (ONE) instance in which he testified for just a few minutes before Congress on inflation and oil prices.

        “John” is so obscure that the most recent references I found to him go back to 2008. Except, of course, for the references on OTHER blogs and newsletters of the same stripe—-part of the circular firing squad that endlessly quote each other and reinforce each others’ distortions. Just a couple of thoughts about “John” that I could find in other places after too much time wasted on the search:

        “Williams claims to have gone about telling the world on The New York Times front page (no articles written by him are found in the archive) and Investors Business Daily (no articles are found in the archive). He is a chronic doom and gloomer that first garnered notice when he predicted the Dow would crash below 1,500 by the end of 1989 in an article by USA Today. The Dow closed that year at 2,753”.

        “Williams posts older statistics that have fallen out of favor by governmental agencies stating that they are being suppressed by the government to make the economy look better. This ignores the fact that these measures are still calculated and published along side the newer methods of looking at the data. Most economists don’t buy Williams’ method of calculating unemployment. They point out that the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the raw data, so all are free to use whatever measure they prefer”.

        “The various agencies also publish all of their backup data as well, which for some reason contains all the things he claims they are trying to suppress (and is exactly where he claims to data mine)”.

        Read that last one again—“John” uses the very data he says is “suppressed” to calculate what he says is the “truth”. Does anyone else see the contradiction there?

        So, Dave, you once again make it hard for us to believe you when you cite as an expert someone that you WANT to believe rather than one who can be deemed an expert based any real factual evidence.

    • S.C.Murf

      flash, Mikey asked you for FACTS to back up your claims but as to date you have not responded, sorry the Ouija board doesn’t give out facts.

      up the hill
      airborne

    • http://www.boblivingstonletter.com/ Bob Livingston

      Dear Flashy,

      You write: “The base formula has remained unchanged.” That is clearly not true.

      From shadowstats.com, http://www.shadowstats.com/article/primers_intro , written in 2004:
      In 1996 — the middle of the Clinton economic miracle — the Kaiser Foundation conducted a survey of the American public that purported to show how out of touch the electorate was with economic reality. Most Americans thought inflation and unemployment were much higher, and economic growth was much weaker, than reported by the government. The Washington Post bemoaned the economic ignorance of the public. The same results would be found today.

      Neither the Kaiser Foundation nor the Post understood that there was and still is good reason for the gap between common perceptions and government reporting: government data are biased in politically correct directions and increasingly have diverged from common experience and reality since the mid-1980s. Inflation and unemployment reports are understated, while employment and other economic data are overstated, deliberately…
      The first regular reporting of now-popular statistics such as gross national/domestic product (GNP/GDP), unemployment and the consumer price index (CPI) began in the decade following World War II. Modern political manipulation of the government’s economic data began as soon as practicable thereafter, with revisions to methodology often incorporating positive reporting biases. As a result, investors and most economists, relying on the government’s data, often miss underlying economic reality. Consider:

      · During the Kennedy administration, unemployment was redefined with the concept of “discouraged workers” so as to reduce the popularly followed unemployment rate.

      · If Lyndon Johnson didn’t like the growth that was going to be reported in the GNP, he sent it back to the Commerce Department, and he kept doing so until Commerce got it right. The Johnson administration also was responsible for gimmicking the accounting that hides most of the federal deficit.

      · Richard Nixon had a highly publicized war with the Bureau of Labor Statistics on the unemployment data. Nixon wanted to report the unemployment rate as the lower of the seasonally adjusted or unadjusted number, at any given time, but not specify same to the public. While that approach was unconscionable at the time and never used, basically the same methodology was introduced in 2004 as “state-of-the-art” by the current Bush administration.

      · The Carter administration was caught deliberately understating inflation.

      · Systemic changes were introduced during the Reagan administration to boost reported GNP/GDP growth on a regular basis. The wildest manipulations, however, happened at the time of the 1987 liquidity panic. In addition to intervention in the futures markets by the New York Fed to help prop the stock market after the October 19th crash, direct and heavy manipulation of the trade deficit data, under the direction of the Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury, was used in conjunction with massive currency intervention to help bottom the dollar and to contain the currency panic at year-end 1987.

      · The first Bush Administration began efforts at the systematic reduction of the reported rate of CPI inflation, and worked an outside-the-system GDP manipulation aimed at helping with the failed 1992 reelection bid.

      · As former Labor Secretary Bob Reich explained in his memoirs, the Clinton administration had found in its public polling that if the government inflated economic reporting, enough people would believe it to swing a close election. Accordingly, whatever integrity had survived in the economic reporting system disappeared during the Clinton years. Unemployment was redefined to eliminate five million discouraged workers and to lower the unemployment rate; methodologies were changed to reduce poverty reporting, to reduce reported CPI inflation, to inflate reported GDP growth, among others.

      · The current Bush administration has expanded upon the Clinton era initiatives, particularly in setting the stage for the adoption of a new and lower-inflation CPI and in further redefining the GDP and the concept of seasonal adjustment.

      It is expedient for the political class to fudge the numbers and lie. It is not exclusive to one party or another, but is a trait of the political class in general. I understand it is your job to shill for the current poser-in-chief and the Democrat party and to obfuscate, manipulate and distract any discussions that paint him in a bad light. But this not necessarily an indictment on him (though he has taken lying to whole new level). It is an indictment on government. Despite what you believe, Obama is merely a pawn in the great game.

      Best wishes,
      Bob

      • Ron r

        yes Bob we also know that if you get information from this site like anywhere else on the Internet it’s true.

        • http://www.boblivingstonletter.com/ Bob Livingston

          Dear Ron r,

          You write: “Bob we also know that if you get information from this site like anywhere else on the Internet it’s true.” Shadowstats is not “like anywhere else on the Internet.” Mr. Williams has an A.B. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a M.B.A. from Dartmouth’s Amos Tuck School of Business Administration in 1972, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. During his career as a consulting economist, John has worked with individuals as well as Fortune 500 companies. Over the decades he has given well in excess of 1,000 presentations on the economic outlook, or on approaches to analyzing economic data, to clients—large and small—including talks with members of the business, banking, government, press, academic, brokerage and investment communities. He has also have provided testimony before Congress (http://archives.financialservices.house.gov/hearing110/hr0717082.shtml). He started his newsletter in 2004 as part of his economic consulting services. In other words, he has staked his reputation and his career on providing reliable and accurate data. He would not still be in business if his information were flawed. I encourage you to analyze his data and report all flaws you find back to me. I will give you the top location on my Monday email to publish your findings if you conclude he is in error.

          Best wishes,
          Bob

      • Flashy

        “I understand it is your job to shill for the current poser-in-chief and the Democrat party and to obfuscate, manipulate and distract any discussions that paint him in a bad light”

        Mr. Livingston….I understand when others on the thread, your pets, make accusations and you let them fly without comment…but you should realize you are seen having higher standards than to cast about false statements as the above. Seems anyone who agrees with most of the current administration are a “shill’ and are not supposed to have intelligent analysis which coincides with many of the programs and policies and proposals.

        Whatever. i guess that holding you the similar standards makes you a shill for the Libertarian Party where your ‘job” is “to obfuscate, manipulate and distract any discussions that paint [libertarianism or Austrian economics] in a bad light”? See the point?

        As well…with the numbers painted by article after article using them in direct comparison by your writers…that makes them complicit in misleading the general readership? Same for the ‘PLD pets”

        I stated that the use of data is to compare and look for trends. I was unaware of any “tweaking’ of the reporting data post ’94….but it does not surprise me Bush II would conduct such…nor that of Reagan. As i did state…using the data as a hard reference point of numbers is an erroneous use of such. Trends Mr. Livingston…trends.

        • http://www.boblivingstonletter.com/ Bob Livingston

          Dear Flashy,

          You write: “Seems anyone who agrees with most of the current administration are (sic) a “shill’ and are (sic) not supposed to have intelligent analysis which coincides with many of the programs and policies and proposals.” It is obvious to me as to others that you are a paid shill. That is different from being a mindless parrot.

          You write: “holding you (sic) the similar standards makes you a shill for the Libertarian Party where your ‘job” is “to obfuscate, manipulate and distract any discussions that paint [libertarianism or Austrian economics] in a bad light”? See the point?” No. As I’m not a libertarian, not a member of any party and not paid by any party or organization, you have no point.

          You write: “I was unaware of any “tweaking’ of the reporting data post ’94….” Now you are. Isn’t learning fun?

          Best wishes,
          Bob

      • DaveH

        LOL.

      • Bill

        Go get em, Bob

      • Opal the Gem

        Flushy has admitted in the past that he is paid to frequent this site but curiously he has never said who pays him to do so.

      • eddie47d

        I bet Opal is a liar on that one.

    • Ranchman

      If the unemployment numbers don’t reflect the truth, then why has this administration changed the way unemployment is measured three times in the last four years, always showing them to be less than they really are each time? And intentionally fudging the numbers on jobs created each month to boot. Every time they come out with the figures for the numbers of jobs created, they get revised lower a week later! No my friend, the unemployment numbers are not an indicator of trends, public consumption or anything else except the percentage of unemployed Americans. If they weren’t, this administration wouldn’t be putting so much work into deceitfully manipulating them like they do. The funny thing about truth is, it never changes, unlike this administrations numbers change…constantly.

      Remember 1776 & Keep Your Powder Dry!
      Ranchman

  • Iris D. Lynch

    Any individual who relies on anyone else, (government or relatives) for their sustenance is a fool. Not only that, deep in their individual heart, they KNOW they are a fool and they do not like their life, or anyone else’s. Depression is a state of mind sometimes relieved by anger. Self reliance is the only self-empowering exercise that each of has the power to engage in and NO ONE can alter our determination without using physical force. That is what is coming.

    • NativeBlood

      So Iris,
      You are saying, in effect, that a person who serves near 30 years in the armed forces, then works for civil service for another 20 years, draws social security, is a fool because all of his/her resources are government based? How does an elderly person
      who built this course of after work life change course without joining the ranks of the non- productive and the “never worked gang”? I worked hard to get where I am financially, now you say give it all up because it is now realized that this country spends too much?
      Before you cut mine, eliminate all the freebees that illegals are given regularly. Turn off the foreign aide spigot. Stop funding state wide swat teams and spy shops. Stop the congressional pay scale and start freshmen at captain wages that the army uses. Their increases should be performance based as determined by the public.
      Stop the earned income credit which is never earned. Have congress pay back all the funds from social security and medicare they have pilfered over the last 30 years.
      Keep all of Zionist Israel out of our political and financial affairs. (Deport all those NEOCON traitors.) Wanna know why this ain’t gonna happen? Nee-Yo-Conz! Don’t know what they are?…Gotta look it up!

      • ranger09

        Native, Very well put.

    • Bill

      Iris,
      The old days of finding a job , working thirty years and retiring in comfort are gone. We are moving in the irection of independent contractors and consultants. The high cost of running a business makes it to costly to keep your regular W-2 employees.

      To earn a living in the future, people will have to produce to get paid, and the whiners will be left behind.

      • ranger09

        In time only the Govt workers will have a retirement system, AND THE HIGHER UPS IN YOUR MAJOR CORPORATIONS/ Heck i forgot Benefits of any kind.
        Also WHEN has a Politician ever told the TRUTH.
        How did we ever arrive at The Rich, The Middle Class, And the Poor. There must be several classes we are missing.

  • vietnamvet1971

    I do not believe any thing “The Big, Bad, Behemoth, Bloated, Bankrupt Gimme-mint” says, They LIE to us every day to try and keep us Stupid, These Elected Idiots we Elect have created this Mess / Monster and no amount of Taxpayer money can keep Feeding this MONSTER. They ALL are Guilty of Treason.

    • ranger09

      From one vet to a vet SO RIGHT YOU ARE.

  • joszsrepublicanpage

    Of course ODUMBAS numbers lie , thats all the stinking negro from Kenya knows how to do is LIE , LIE , LIE and more LIES

    • eddie47d

      Then there is the continual Republican name calling and truth stretching to appease their constituencies!

  • Don Ruane

    When will we all learn that it is IMPOSSIBLE to trust anything this administration says.
    Lying about unemployment has been the norm for the last 48 months..
    BHO was born to a Muslim father, that means BHO was a Muslim, is now a Muslin and will always be a Muslin.
    The Koran teaches that a Muslin does not have to tell the truth to any non-believers, think Americans. That is also the correct explanation for BHO’s cold detached aloofness.
    He just think he is better then we are.

    • http://notapplicable John

      You are spot on! I urge all people to read the Koran. Then you will know what America and freedom loving people are really up against. The Koran is absolute filth!

      • Louis Lemieux
      • eddie47d

        Hazelton did drag it out a bit but an interesting watch Louis. Speaking of aloofness Don how are you doing? Remember when Christianity tried to convert millions to our belief and millions accepted? So why do you insist that a Muslim child can’t be converted or indoctrinated into the Christian faith. There are always those who like to build stone walls and Don you are one of them.

  • Louis Lemieux

    No one ever talks about the underground economy, all those workers who get paid under the table. And believe me, there numerous!

    • ranger09

      Goes real good with the Illegals, But we also have a lot of Americans that do the same thing.
      Truth and Honesty, Respect for your fellow man and his Property. Damn i wish i knew what this means. I think these were the things i was trying to teach my kids.

  • http://rion.dirks@yahoo.com Nottakenyan

    Only the mentally incompetent buy his BS!!

  • itsfun

    Just goes to believe the old saying “figures don’t lie, but liars figure”

  • Charles Roden

    Statistics can prove any point desired, just pick the correct numbers, that is what the admin does and can prove any lie

  • ToughGuy1

    Obama’s “lame duck” Administration was cursed in the middle of his first term on unemployment figures that didn’t match then!

  • DaveH

    How about that 1.7% COLA on your Social Security benefits? Does it feel to you like your cost of living only increased 1.7% this year?
    Here is what John Williams says it increased based on 1980 (about 9%) and 1990 (about 5%) Government Methodologies:
    http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

    So even if we use the low numbers based on 1990 methodology, the Government is still robbing the Social Security recipients of 3% of their benefits this year thanks to their profligate money-creation through the Federal Reserve and the resultant loss in value of the dollar.

    • ranger09

      Well one thing for sure, Politicians and Govt workers sure got their share

  • DTConcerned

    shadowstat.com will not even open, is it a third world propaganda website? I know in the area of the USA where I live everyone that I know that was not working four years ago that wanted to now has a job. I know unemployment statistics were skewed to look bad for Obama because of extended unemployment which allowed people to receive benefits for a longer period of time. I know if you look at real employment statistics instead of unemployment the number of jobs in this country that people are working has gone up while the number of government employees has gone down over the past four years. I know that the crash in jobs was a direct consequence of the Bush administration and the bonus benefits he orchestrated for the upper 1%. I know there are a massive number of republicans that are mad at Obama for not extending the abused escape from taxes benefits to the rich. I know that if the rich are taxed they will have to invest in business and promote prosperity to shelter thier income from taxes, instead of just fleecing the rest of the country. I am sick of the let’s play politics at the expense of the American people. Vote third party and get all of these corporate owned lackys out of office. Republicans refusing to agree to budget cuts because Obama might increase taxes to the rich, what the heck, the GOP is fighting against taxing the 1% and against making budget cuts, does the GOP really want to force the country into catastrophy as they have been pushing for the last 12 years or more now? It is like the GOP is pushing for a Fascist country ruled by the 1% and the Dems are pushing for socialism.

    • http://www.boblivingstonletter.com/ Bob Livingston

      Dear DTConcerned,

      You write: “shadowstat.com will not even open, is it a third world propaganda website?” No. It is a subscription site. From the site: Walter J. “John” Williams was born in 1949. He received an A.B. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a M.B.A. from Dartmouth’s Amos Tuck School of Business Administration in 1972, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. During his career as a consulting economist, John has worked with individuals as well as Fortune 500 companies.

      The SGS Newsletter

      “John Williams’ Shadow Government Statistics” is an electronic newsletter service that exposes and analyzes flaws in current U.S. government economic data and reporting, as well as in certain private-sector numbers, and provides an assessment of underlying economic and financial conditions, net of financial-market and political hype.

      Shadowstats is a highly respected newsletter.

      You write: “I know if you look at real employment statistics instead of unemployment the number of jobs in this country that people are working has gone up while the number of government employees has gone down over the past four years.” Not true. In Nov. 2008 there were 137 million non farm workers. Today there are less than 134 million. The number of Govt. workers has increased. http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/feb/2/burgeoning-federal-payroll-signals-return-of-big-g/?page=all

      You write: “I know that the crash in jobs was a direct consequence of the Bush administration and the bonus benefits he orchestrated for the upper 1%.” The crash was the result of profligate money printing by the Fed that created bubbles in the housing market the collapsed and brought down phony derivative markets created by the corporatists and protected and propped up by the fascists in government.

      You write: “I know there are a massive number of republicans that are mad at Obama for not extending the abused escape from taxes benefits to the rich.” I don’t know what you are trying to say.

      You write: “I know that if the rich are taxed they will have to invest in business and promote prosperity to shelter thier (sic) income from taxes, instead of just fleecing the rest of the country.” You need to learn more about how businesses work.

      You write: “I am sick of the let’s play politics at the expense of the American people.” That’s what corrupt, sociopaths in government have done for a long time.

      You write: “It is like the GOP is pushing for a Fascist country ruled by the 1% and the Dems are pushing for socialism.” Both are fascist.

      Best wishes,
      Bob

      • Flashy

        Mr. Livingston…perhaps a memo can be sent to the writers that if they are going to rely on any site, it should not require a subscriptionj to verify the numbers or the quotes.

        http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2011/12/james-hamilton-on-shadowstats-and-niall-fergusons-claim-that-true-inflation-is-more-than-10-per-year.html

        • http://www.boblivingstonletter.com/ Bob Livingston

          Dear Flashy,

          You write: “perhaps a memo can be sent to the writers that if they are going to rely on any site, it should not require a subscriptionj to verify the numbers or the quotes.” Are you suggesting that I or Mr. Roberts have inaccurately depicted Mr. William’s numbers? There is a lot of free information available on shadowstats.com if one will look for it. Here he explains his methodology, http://www.shadowstats.com/primers-and-reports . Included is his very extensive hyperinflation report, which I quoted last week.

          Best wishes,
          Bob

      • Flashy

        Mr. Livingston

        I am suggesting people may come to a different conclusion than the writer of the article. The questioning and verification of data, methodology, and conclusions from anyone or any site should be at the forefront before one makes a determination or relies upon the statements/conclusions made…would you not agree?

        BTW…I do not think PLD receives any benefit for subscriptions garnered from the publicizing and use of a paid site.

      • DaveH

        That’s a laugh riot coming from Flashman, the administration shill, who very rarely backs up any of his conjecture with factual references, and who lies often and equivocates daily in his comments.
        Do you really think, Flashman, that you are influencing anybody with a brain (excluding people who misname themselves “Brain”)? Those who would be influenced by you, Flashman, are beyond help.
        But please keep posting, Flashman, because you save us a lot of work in convincing ordinary people just how deficient Liberal Progressives are in morality, intelligence, and respect for their fellow man.

  • James Maxwell

    The government numbers are so skewed that even they do not have any idea as to
    how many people are actually employed or unemployed. The IRS knows but they
    will not distinguish between criminal Illigal aliens, Legal imigrants are Amrican Citizens.
    If the actual figures were published it would probably be Americans out of work around
    18 – 20 percent and Illigal Alines around 15 percent. But they won’t go home because
    they are living off the American Tax payers and the welfare benefits they are drawing.
    Not to mention the “Under the Table wages” they get for cutting grass and other unreported
    income. Based upon the amount of money sent across the borders as reported by the
    Western Union and other banking concerns they are doing quite well and the money
    flowing south is a significant drain upon our economy.

    • Ron r

      Mr. Roberts, my suggestion to you is to stop cherry picking ,accept the results of the election, stop with the messaging that got you no where,and start registering and talking like you have some intelligence to people you have in the past said did not matter. In other words act like you have some sense!!!!!!!!!!

    • ranger09

      Very true, And the mexican Govt knows this very well, Thats why they assist them in going to the usa. Because of this all aid to mexico should be dropped and this money left here in our Country.Declare mexico a terrorist Country and bring home all our people and weapons and money, use them at the Border where they could do some good. Let Mexico deal with its own problems, Just as we say to do with the Arab Countries. Mexico seems to be a bigger problem than the arab countries are to us.

  • RichE

    ‘Confirming Indicators’ should be a part of any economic focused report. If employment is up sales should be up, IRS revenue should be up, etc.

  • jungle man

    “If the “free and democratic” Americans cannot even find out what the unemployment rate is, how do they expect to find out about anything?”… That’s the whole point, to make sure the public does not know the truth. I never believe anything a politician says no matter who he is, but Obama and his loyal media and statisticians have operated entirely on lies fed to the media then to the public as truth. EVERYTHING he campaigned on in 08 was all lies and it’s completely obvious, but they seem to have the ability to convince people otherwise using more lies. Just forget everything government and media publicize. There is no truth in any of the political news from either party.

  • Steve E

    Are people going to believe that the 7.7% unemployment rate,is correct, or are they going to believe their own eyes?

  • http://yahoo Jack Kelley

    I would give good odds that all the numbers are calculated by workers that are in a union!

  • Vietnam6871

    The die is cast. Neither political party will do anything to prevent the economy from tanking except for pointing fingers at the other side as it happens. More taxes is nothing but a smokescreen. Spending is the problem and that is only increasing, not decreasing. The takers now outnumber the makers so there are fewer and fewer makers to support the takers – it will collapse and it will be devastating to the takers who will die by the millions. As a maker I will gladly give them one last parting gift, a load of 000 buckshot.

    • Bill

      Viet,
      I am only going to use 00 buck. What, are you greedy?

    • ranger09

      One thing Americans have trouble understanding is Both parties belong to the same Club And we are not members, We only donate money for their use. This is what makes us the suckers. Also do you have any idea what it cost the taxpayers for the President to run for reelection and for the time and money we spent for him to get his cohorts elected.

      • DaveH

        Once you realize that the State is just a very big coercive Gang, everything else they do becomes very clear.

  • Reality Hurts

    I run an insurance agency and searched for help — a Virtual Assistant, temp position at $12/hour, to confirm appointments. No cold calls. A two and 1/2 hours max per day.
    “Virtual” means they work from their own place, no driving, no dress up, no make up. That simple.
    This is what they ask: “what benefits do I get?”, “do I get paid vacations?”, “can I get my pay in advance?”, “if I take this (part time) I’ll lose my unemployment benefits?”.
    Reality hurts, but we don’t have an unemployment crisis yet. Neither a financial crisis. What we really have is a “gimme, gimme” mentality, the result of a moral crisis.
    The majority of unemployed don’t want to work. This is the most serious crisis.

    • Scott in SC

      I’ll take that job. Give me some contact information.

    • Bill

      Reality,
      Good post. This is the direction that small business is going. You might have to look for virtual assistants in other countries, where they are happy to work.

      • Reality Hurts

        Bill,
        and THAT is what I did. Better service, no lame excuses, no stupidity.
        As Bob said, God Bless America because we are in very serious trouble !

      • Scott in SC

        Bill and RH,
        Y’all seem to be the ones making excuses. I offered to take the job; I didn’t ask for vacation or benefits, but you chose to ignore my offer which is what most employers do. and then they whine they can’t find anyone who wants to work.

      • phideaux

        Scott are you illiterate or a whining taker? RH clearly stated the position is already filled.

      • Bill

        Scott,
        I am sorry for your situation but you have to realize that someone who posts on this site cannot give out their contact information. But you can be proactive. Create a resume that “Wows and Dazzles” a potential employer and use the web to search for a position.

        Be creative. If Reality runs an insurance business and he needs a virtual assistant, then that should be a clue where to look. Find a database of insurance agents and put them on an email drip system of “why they cannot live without your services”.

        Good luck

    • nickkin

      First of all Reality, you have to ask them some common-sense questions. First, what is the definition of “common sense”-next, who did you vote for? If its’ obozo they won’t want to work, but would like you to send them some money monthly any way. If they voted for Romney, they would be willing to learn about common-sense and they would love to work your job situation along with their present employment whether it be full or part-time. Good luck

      • Reality Hurts

        Nickkin,
        Who do you think got elected? And who do you think elected them? This, my friend, is the reality we are facing in America.
        Want to know more? One candidate was a 25 years old male (not caucasian), came driving a new Lexus coupe. Worked on night shift and received food stamps (of course, we pay for his “qualified benefit”).
        Asked how he qualified for food stamps being employed he replied “the minister of our church recommends all of us to apply for food stamps and has a way to help qualify us”.
        This is the moral crisis we are facing, where the bad example comes from the top. Any top…
        The financial crisis can be fixed in a few years while the moral one will take generations.
        We are perpetuating “gimme-gimmes”.
        By the way, let’s go back to work. There are too many “gimme-gimmes” depending on us.

      • eddie47d

        Yesterday it was reported that in 2009 2,400 millionaires collected 21 million in unemployment benefits. Maybe they deserved it (payed into the system) and maybe not. I reckon even the millionaires deserved to retain their lifestyle but oh boy will some pick on the lower class as “lazy” unemployed.

      • DaveH

        To be a Millionaire in this day and age of monetary devaluation does not really mean a lot.
        Owning 2 $500,000 homes, for instance, would make a person a millionaire. Hardly anything to crow about.

      • Right Brain Thinker

        DaveH says: “Owning 2 $500,000 homes, for instance, would make a person a millionaire. Hardly anything to crow about”.

        You’re right about that, Dave, since owning the houses free and clear is the only way one could begin to be considered a “millionaire”. Otherwise, one is just an overextended “debtor”. As in perhaps having two $400,000 mortgages? And only $200,000 in equity that is hard to tap? Now having $1,000,000 in the bank might be something to crow about, because one could then assert “millionaire” status. Thanks for more clear-headed thinking from the land of DaveH.

  • http://none ron

    Whatever the numbers are , they are a damn site more honest than the ones Bush and his cronies put out !!!!!

    • Bill

      Ron,
      Blah, blah, blah Bush. Yawn…

    • nickkin

      They didn’t need to invent numbers like the obozo regime did.

    • Steve E

      This one blames Bush without any facts. How Obama of you.

    • eddie47d

      Come on Steve and company you’d blame Obama if you cut yourself shaving! Its always guaranteed!

    • Charlie R

      Ron: You are obviously joking aren’t you?

  • http://wildeyguns.com The Christian American

    I fully agree with Mr. Roberts but there is a side completely overlooked and that is the amount of people hired into government doing things that could or should be done by the private sector. If the government confined itself to doing only what it should be doing, figures I’ve seen show 90% of the people working in government should be in the private sector, contributing to the wealth of the nation, not draining it away. Government by it’s very nature is a necessary liabilty. It consumes wealth. If morality ruled, we wouldn’t need government but that’s not the case so we need “force”, government. There are more people working in government than there are the number of people working in all industry combined. The private sector creates wealth. Government consumes wealth. So. How many of the people working are working creating wealth and how many of the people are working consuming wealth? I’ve never seen those figures.

  • VINCE DIANA

    EVERY ONE IN THE US SHOULD READ THIS ARTICLE . OUTSTANDING. SUGGEST THAT YOU INTERPRET IT IN SPANISH,AND ADDRESS IT TO ALL OF BARRY O. VOTERS !!!

  • ross

    This article dose not include the underemployed, and many people are counted more than once because they are working two are more part time jobs.

  • http://wildeyguns.com The Christian American

    I am in full agreement with Mr. Roberts but there is a figure I haven’t heard. Of the people working, how many of them are producing wealth and how many of them are consuming wealth? People creating wealth are in the private sector, providing they are not working on government contracts. The private sector is an asset to the nation while the government sector is a liability. In a moral world we wouldn’t need government but that’s not the case. People working for the government, directly or indirectly consume wealth. Unless we can get those figures inorder our destiny is spelled out for us. The last figures I’ve seen, there are more people working for the government that there are in all of industry combined. These people have to take care their own needs and provide for government workers.

    • nickkin

      You are so right…let’s take the post-office…..big breast feeder.

      • eddie47d

        Actually the Post Office supported itself for over 30 some years from the early 70′s. Nickkin is a big lower cheek feeder of nonsense.

      • DaveH
      • eddie47d

        Dave is a liar even with his phony “proof”. 6 years ago the government told the Post office to pay their own health care and the Post Office couldn’t make that 75 billion payment request by the government. Before that they had made a profit for 30 years. Dave tries to be so cleaver!

  • Bob

    Agreed, no media discipline being imposed on this administration. Democracy cannot work under these conditions. Obama has become unhinged since the election. He cannot govern so…. He campaigns and thinks that is sufficient. Democrats MUST brake ranks or we are going over many cliffs at the same time. Talking points are not political discussion, God Bless America we are in serious trouble!

    • http://Yahoo William

      Bob I think God took the last train from America on 11/6/2012

    • http://wildeyguns.com The Christian American

      According to Ben Franklin: Democracy is two wolves and a sheep voting on what’s for lunch. We’ve seen just that this last election.

      • DaveH

        Considering the fact that 60.5 million voted for Obama, and there are about 314 million people in the US, it would be more like 1 wolf voting to have 4 sheep for dinner.

  • nickkin

    The leftists like flashy, eddie and the likes, love to live in the government lie. They thrive on backwards accounting. Baseline accounting by our so-called American government is the way to snow those people that will believe anything but make sure it makes them feel good. Whether its dems or repubs, they are lining their pockets with their admin. moves & acting like “tin-men” selling the product. Clinton lives and still lives in a lie along with his secret cohort-obozo. They live the lie and have snowed the taxpayer during their rule and will until the end of our (Americans) time. You dufists-lefties love to live your spoon-fed candy with you thinking that as long as they tell us it’s from the 1% that won’t come out of our pockets. The left has already and is still getting “water-boarded” and your drinking the “water-of-lies”. Remember lefties-”you support & protect those who are responsible for “for dead Americans.”

  • Paul

    MIlton Friedman, Nobel prize winner for economics, said “I am in favor of cutting taxes under any circumstances and for any excuse, for any reason, whenever it is possible. Low taxes (except with this administration)slow the growth of government which sucks the producers dry of capital, incentive, and innovation. Low taxes is not the problems. Government spending is. Giving cocaine to an addict doesn’t cure the problem. We cannot tax ourselves out of this hole. Only growth in the economy will produce the income to decrease our debt. Do the simple math a real drop in unemployment, not the phony numbers put out by this administration, not only produces taxpayers but also lessens the need for “safety net”. Lower food stamps, unemployment compensation, Disability payments etc. to unemployed workers means less spending by government. It is foolish to think that raising tax rates will improve the economy. Milton Friedman, won a Nobel prize for determining that government was the problem most effecting economic growth. Some of the comments in this website border show a total ignorance of the problem. For those of you who read check out Friedman’s book “Free to Choose”, which outlines the problem with taxes.

    • http://wildeyguns.com The Christian American

      This is true but what happens when people give a “power of attorney” to borrow and spend money under the people’s signature to “the” congress? Real money, gold and silver certificates, have been replaced with Notes payable on demand from the federal reserve, Notes the people have to pay back to the federal reserve. Sounds insane? It is.

  • Remember Mark Twain?

    Mark Twain once said “there are lies, there are dammed lies and there are statistics”.

  • Randy G

    Has anyone noticed that the comments that most need rebuttal can not be replied to.

  • Charlie R

    So Whats New?
    Obama has been lying ever since he ran for Illinois state senator, and before that too.
    In addition, as state senator he was rarely present at the state capital because he was running for president from the day he was elected to the state senate. (This man had no governmental experience much like another tyrant democratically elected to office in the 1920′s) This then folks is the president America elected and then re-elected.

    The reality of the matter is you all get FOUR MORE YEARS ….. get used to it, America is now a one party socialistic country and there will be hell to pay!

    • http://wildeyguns.com The Christian American

      Lying is one of the requirements for the job He’s got. Realizing that, you shouldn’t get caught when the truth appears and be able to deal with it.

      • Charlie R

        TCA: Your points are well taken.
        I would like to clarify the point of politicians lying and in the interest of separating Obama and his cabal from the rest of the politicians. Being from the Chicago area and following The Obama Cabal’s rise to power, I can tell you Obama has set a new standard to political deception and he is a master of it .

        Further, this man is without question hateful, mean, and a TYRANT. ( read his books)
        Obama is not what he appears to be, and has all the attributes of dictators past. He has positioned himself perfectly to destroy the two party system in America (in concert with democrats) and will continue to “FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGE AMERICA” as he said he would do.

        The American electorate, along with the corrupt liberal news media, is now a consortium of democrat “jackasses”, misfits, and informationally challenged folks that believeObamas HOPE AND CHANGE lies and have given him four more years to run this country into the toilet. ( just like the German voters did in the 1930′s)

        So, resign your self to higher taxes, continued higher unemployment and a lower standard of living. Obama is not the kind of president that understands private sector job creation and is more attuned to “social justice”and income redistribution as exemplified with his roots and experience with ACORN.

        So, the real debate is: What will America look like in for years? And thus the bigger question; Will Obama find a way to usurp the two term constitutional limit and ” seek a third term? …lAs his ideologue buddy H Chavez is doing?… DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THIS MAN we call “president and the “new” American electorate.

    • http://wildeyguns.com The Christian American

      We’re an involuntary socialist democracy. The majority imposes it’s will on the minority and in this cases the majority is the predators in America’s society. The producers lost.

  • Ron r

    Mr. Roberts, my suggestion to you is to stop cherry picking ,accept the results of the election, stop with the messaging that got you no where,and start registering and talking like you have some intelligence to people you have in the past said did not matter. In other words act like you have some sense!!!!!!!!!!

    • http://wildeyguns.com The Christian American

      Ron r After reading your post, I believe you are a candidate for a deck chair instead of a lifeboat.

  • Proteus1946

    Bruce Bailey Presents: WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE

    December 10, 2012

    JOBLESS RATE DROPS, SURPRISING ANALYSTS

    Non-farm payrolls expanded by 146,000 positions in November. Economists polled by Reuters had expected only 93,000 new jobs because of the impact of Superstorm Sandy. Yet while the jobless rate dipped to 7.7% last month, it was largely because fewer people sought work; the labor force participation rate was 63.6%, scraping an all-time low. The economy has added an average of 151,000 jobs a month in 2012, about 25% less than the growth needed to dramatically reduce unemployment.1,2

    SENTIMENT INDEX SLIPS

    The fiscal cliff issue and ferocious weather may have been big factors in the sudden 8.2% drop in the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index. November’s 74.5 preliminary reading was far from the number (82.7) that economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast.2

    MANUFACTURING CONTRACTS

    For November, the Institute for Supply Management gauged service sector expansion and manufacturing sector contraction. ISM’s manufacturing index fell to 49.5 for the month, down from 51.7 in October. The non-manufacturing index was at 54.7, improved from October’s 54.2 mark.3

    MIXED WEEK FOR STOCKS, NO PROGRESS AT THE CLIFF

    With the fiscal cliff less than four weeks away, neither Democrats nor Republicans were citing any compromise on tax rates on Capitol Hill (though the idea of setting the top federal tax bracket at 37% rather than 39.6% had emerged). House Speaker John Boehner said that the White House had “wasted another week” due to the Obama administration’s stubbornness; House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi felt that the Republican leadership was just as inflexible. The major index performance for the week: Dow, +0.99% to 13,155.13; NASDAQ, -1.07% to 2,978.04; S&P 500, +0.13% to 1,418.07. Oil ended the week at just $85.93 a barrel on the NYMEX and gold settled Friday at $1,705.50 an ounce on the COMEX.2,4,5,6,7

    THIS WEEK: No major U.S. economic releases are scheduled for Monday. On Tuesday, Dollar General reports earnings. Wednesday, the Federal Reserve makes a policy announcement (with a corresponding press conference), OPEC wraps up a meeting of its oil ministers, and Costco unveils its latest earnings. The Census Bureau’s November retail sales numbers arrive on Thursday, along with November’s PPI, the latest weekly jobless claims figures and earnings from Hovnanian, Pier 1 Imports and Adobe Systems. Friday sees the release of the November CPI and data on November’s industrial production.

    % CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG

    DJIA +7.67 +7.86 -0.69 +5.22

    NASDAQ +14.31 +12.41 +2.01 +10.94

    S&P 500 +12.76 +12.46 -1.15 +5.55

    Sources: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov, treasurydirect.gov – 12/7/122,8,9,10
    Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.
    These returns do not include dividends.

    This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. Marketing Library.Net Inc. is not affiliated with any broker or brokerage firm that may be providing this information to you. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

    Citations.

    1 – http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/07/us-usa-economy-idUSBRE8B605F20121207 [12/7/12]

    2 – http://www.cnbc.com/id/100289757 [12/7/12]

    3 – http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm [12/5/12]

    4 – http://www.cnn.com/2012/12/07/politics/fiscal-cliff/index.html [11/27/12]

    5 – http://www.politico.com/story/2012/12/boehner-on-fiscal-cliff-no-progress-to-report-84753.html [12/7/12]

    6 – http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-07/soybeans-corn-fall-most-in-three-weeks-commodities-at-close.html [12/7/12]

    7 – montoyaregistry.com/Financial-Market.aspx?financial-market=retirement-investment-funds&category=3 [12/7/12]

    8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F7%2F11&x=0&y=0 [12/7/12]

    8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F7%2F11&x=0&y=0 [12/7/12]

    8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F7%2F11&x=0&y=0 [12/7/12]

    8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F7%2F07&x=0&y=0 [12/7/12]

    8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F7%2F07&x=0&y=0 [12/7/12]

    8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F7%2F07&x=0&y=0 [12/7/12]

    8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F6%2F02&x=0&y=0 [12/7/12]

    8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F6%2F02&x=0&y=0 [12/7/12]

    8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F6%2F02&x=0&y=0 [12/7/12]

    9 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [12/7/12]

    9 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [12/7/12]

    10 – treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2002/ofm71002.pdf [7/10/02]

  • ron

    A History Lesson

    Humans originally existed as members of small bands of nomadic hunters/gatherers. They lived on deer in the mountains during the summer and would go to the coast and live on fish and lobster in the winter.

    The two most important events in all of history were the invention of beer and the invention of the wheel. The wheel was invented to get man to the beer. These were the foundation of modern civilization and together were the catalyst for the splitting of humanity into two distinct subgroups:

    1. Liberals; and
    2. Conservatives.

    Once beer was discovered, it required grain and that was the beginning of agriculture. Neither the glass bottle nor aluminum can were invented yet, so while our early humans were sitting around waiting for them to be invented, they just stayed close to the brewery. That’s how villages were formed.

    Some men spent their days tracking and killing animals to B-B-Q at night while they were drinking beer. This was the beginning of what is known as the Conservative movement.

    Other men who were weaker and less skilled at hunting learned to live off the conservatives by showing up for the nightly B-B-Q’s and doing the sewing, fetching, and hair dressing. This was the beginning of the Liberal movement.

    Some of these liberal men eventually evolved into women. The rest became known as girliemen.

    Some noteworthy liberal achievements include the domestication of cats, the invention of group therapy, group hugs, and the concept of Democratic voting to decide how to divide the meat and beer that conservatives provided.

    Over the years conservatives came to be symbolized by the largest, most powerful land animal on earth, the elephant. Liberals are symbolized by the jackass.

    Modern liberals like imported beer (with lime added), but most prefer white wine or imported bottled water. They eat raw fish but like their beef well done. Sushi, tofu, and French food are standard liberal fare.

    Another interesting evolutionary side note: most of their women have higher testosterone levels than their men. Most social workers, personal injury attorneys, journalists, dreamers in Hollywood and group therapists are liberals. Liberals invented the designated hitter rule because it wasn’t fair to make the pitcher also bat.

    Conservatives drink domestic beer. They eat red meat and still provide for their women. Conservatives are big-game hunters, rodeo cowboys, lumberjacks, construction workers, firemen, medical doctors, police officers, corporate executives, athletes, Marines, and generally anyone who works productively. Conservatives who own companies hire other conservatives who want to work for a living.

    Liberals produce little or nothing. They like to govern the producers and decide what to do with the production. Liberals believe Europeans are more enlightened than Americans. That is why most of the liberals remained in Europe when conservatives were coming to America. They crept in after the Wild West was tamed and created a business of trying to get more for nothing.

    Here ends today’s lesson in world history: It should be noted that a Liberal may have a momentary urge to angrily respond to the above before forwarding it. A Conservative will simply laugh and be so convinced of the absolute truth of this history that it will be forwarded immediately to other true believers and to more liberals just to piss them off.

    • Charlie R

      Ron: Interesting and creative comments.
      It appears the JACKASSES elected and reelected OBAMA, are running the country, and eating our BBQ / drinking our beer. Rather taste fully put i’d say

    • ranger09

      Ron, have to disagree on several groups called conservatives, Drs do very little Productive work, also Policemen and Firemen and Corp Exes do very little Productive work. ANYWAY NOT TO DAY

    • Bill

      Great History Lesson, Ron,
      Keep up the good work. I think I will have a rare venison burger

  • Tunaman

    YOU CAN BICKER ALL DAY AND EVER DAY, BUT IT WON’T CHANGE WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE WHITE HOUSE! OBUMMER HAS THE NAIL AND HAMMER FOR AMERICA’S COFFIN!! OBUMMER IS NOT A CHRISTIAN AS HE CLAIMS, BUT A RAGHEAD MISLIM AND SOCILIST!! THIS COUNTRY WILL BE A WAR ZONE SOMETIME IN THE NEXT FOUR YEARS!!! SO, BICKER ON , BUT BE READY FOR THE FIGHT OF YOUR LIFE; THE BOOK OF REVELATIONS HAS THE FUTURE MAPPED OUT FOR THE WORLD!! BE RIGHT WITH YOUR “CREATOR,GOD”!! “HE” IS YOUR ONLY HOPE!!!

    • eddie47d

      Still selling phony prophecy Tunaman? I believe the economy will pick up and do good the next four years. We have to worry more about it over heating not worsening. That all depends on Congress reaching a deal and setting the stage for a strong or weak economy!

      • DaveH

        Now the board Troll thinks he’s an economic forecaster.

      • eddie47d

        ….and Dave still thinks he’s the doomsday forcaster!

    • http://gravatar.com/bychoosing WTS/JAY

      You afford Obama waaay too much credit, Tunaman! You make the same mistake as those who gave Bush all the credit. Ever heard the expression; “It takes a village to raise a child”? Similarly, it takes a well organized and concerted multi-national-organization(s) to destroy a country!

      • Right Brain Thinker

        Uh, Jay? They’re not listening. It’s like standing beside a flowing river of lava and throwing snowballs into it in the hopes of cooling it off. A tiny “pshhhhtt” of steam and it’s like it never happened.

  • DAVY632

    It doesn’t MATTER who is in the White House or who wins the election – THE GOVERNMENT ALWAYS GETS IN!! BOTH parties are responsible and BOTH parties vote to KEEP SPENDING and BUYING the VOTES of the ignorant masses too dumb to realize they are being bribed with their own money.

  • innertrader

    Three of the smartest and most successful individuals in my industry have left this country. The 1st left in 2000, the next in 2004 and the last 2007. It truly is time to leave, but I have been holding on to “hope”…. and in my view, this last election destroyed ALL hope! It truly is absolutely OVER! Bye Bye American Pie! Whatever you do, Do NOT let any of your children die for this country, when we have a president who is destroying it from within! Remember, he was trying to blame an “anti” Muslim for the murder of our embassy personnel !!! There is a message there that you need to receive.

    • http://midcontint brand inspector

      The liberial dumb azzes who think this maddrass educated; book trained, marxist/socialist smuck in the WH, all with all the socialist/communist democraps, just need to inflict more pain on the public school trained morons, who needs lots of pain in their lives, to get a bearing of doing something for themselves, toget a guidance in their mental midget minds. Democraps have always supported the socialist/communist mindset from the groups start. It will take at least a year at best before the bastards implode. Reminds me of Nixons Watergate stupidity, only now we have the communist media who never print or tell what is facta topeople, since they are all dumbocrap socialist/communist prositutes.

  • Right Brain Thinker

    This comment refers back to a post DaveH made on 12/11 at 11:55 AM. The thread has gotten so cluttered that I am posting it as something “new” rather than a “reply” so that it may perhaps be seen by more folks. By the way, if anyone has noticed, DaveH is up to his old trick of monopolizing and confusing the thread—23 out of 173 comments as of 7:40 AM on 12/12 are his, nearly 1 out of every 7 posted. Since it is obvious that there are more than 7 people posting, I will again suggest that he is “taking” more than his share.

    DaveH’s earlier posting said:
    “It’s instructive to look at the five countries which are the most Economically Free (Smallest Governments), as ranked by Heritage Foundation, and their Unemployment Rates:
    1) Hong Kong — 3.3%
    2) Singapore — 1.9%
    3) Australia — 5.2%
    4) New Zealand — 6.8%
    5) Switzerland — 3.1%
    and some countries which are the least Economically Free (Biggest Governments), and their Unemployment rates:
    171) Iran — 11.5%
    173) Burma — 4.9%
    174) Venezuela — 8.3%
    176) Libya — 13%
    178) Zimbabwe — 70%”

    And that’s it. I’m not even sure if this comment relates back to any earlier ones—–as I said, “clutter” makes it hard to follow the thread. Nor does Dave give us any conclusions, leaving us to wonder why this posting is important..

    DaveH does tell us that it will be “instructive” to look at a listing of countries that are the most and least “economically free” and their unemployment rates. Note that DaveH has used “instructive” rather than “informative”, which implies that he is trying to “teach” us something rather than provide us with information that we can analyze for ourselves, i.e., that Dave sees some “truth” in these figures that we all should just accept.

    The first thing I asked myself when seeing DaveH’s “data” was “Where are the countries ranked #’s 172, 175, 177, and 179?”, and “Why has DaveH given us the ‘top five’ in order but reached up NINE places from the bottom to give us five of the worst”?

    A look at the raw data shows that the #172 Democratic Republic of the Congo and #175 Eritrea have no unemployment statistics available. So DaveH skipped them. OK, then why did he skip #177 CUBA and #179 NORTH KOREA? Surely their stats are more significant than those of Burma and Zimbabwe (the latter of which is so far out of whack that it should have never been used by Dave in the first place—I guess he couldn’t resist that 70%)

    Guess what?, Cuba has an unemployment rate of 1.6% and North Korea has an “official” rate of 0.0% (it would likely be higher if they counted all the folks in prison camps—-anyone who is not in jail in NK apparently has a job).

    If Dave HAD dropped Zimbabwe as he should have, and used the real “bottom five”, he would have come up with an average unemployment rate of 5.6%, not that far above the average rate of 4.1% for the “top five” (and Libya skewed the bottom five more than a bit).

    Dave could also have told everyone that the range of “scores” for the top five was 81 to 90, that Canada ranked #6 with a score of 80, and that the U.S. ranked #10 with a score of 76.

    Am I accusing DaveH of perhaps doing a perhaps deliberately sloppy job of cherrypicking data and using that data to “instruct” us about a preconceived bias? Yep, I sure am. And that’s not even bringing up Dave’s misuse of the terms “economically free” and “big and small government” in this context.

    Nor will I bring up GINI and income inequality numbers at this time. Also not the % of GDP devoted to government spending and the tax burden as a % of GDP. Dave should be embarrassed enough that he has been caught with his pants down this much—-we can see enough of the ugly warts on the half of his behind that serves him as a “brain”. I, unlike Dave, am a gentleman, and therefore won’t pile on. (Unless someone really wants to see the withheld data).

  • Karolyn

    Woo-Hoo! Gas $2.98//gal. at Murphy’s/WalMart, less 10 cents with a gift card!

  • William May

    The unemployment numbers have been faked forever.

    My high school was a small boarding school in New England; 56 in our graduating class. Three went to Harvard, several Yale, Princeton: I had 8 classmates with me at Duke. I’m class correspondent, and write the Notes, so I know what everyone is doing.

    Fully 20% of the people who want to be working are not working.

    Twenty per cent out of a group of people that uniformly went to college, and mostly to very good colleges.

    That number is scary.

  • Jess Phelps

    If you think James`s story is good,, last pay cheque my dads neighbour basically brought home $8574 grafting sixteen hours a week from their apartment and the’re friend’s step-mother`s neighbour has done this for four months and errned more than $8574 parttime On their laptop. apply the information from this web-site, FAB33.COM

  • Bruce Klawitter

    I would be real curious on how few of these jobs are just under the required number of hours per week (part time) so that the employers don’t have to provide insurance. I don’t think a full time job exists anymore.

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