Leading Indicators Muted, Showing Risks
October 20, 2011 by UPI - United Press International, Inc.
NEW YORK, Oct. 20 (UPI) — The U.S. index of leading economic indicators rose 0.2 percent in September, but still point to a weak economy, the Conference Board said Thursday.
The Leading Economic Index, which has risen for the past four months, climbed in September to 116.4.
However, Conference Board economist Ataman Ozyildirim said, “September data shows moderating growth.”
“The weakness among the leading indicator components have become slightly more widespread in September,” Ozyildirim said.
Economist Ken Goldstein, also at the Conference Board, said, “The LEI is pointing to soft economic conditions through the end of 2011.”
“There is a risk that already low confidence — consumer, business and investor — could weaken further” he said.
Bottom line, Goldstein said, “The probability of a downturn starting over the next few months remains about 50 percent.”