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Dim forecast for U.S. recovery

October 23, 2008 by  

The economy may not pick up until mid-2009Investors who have been hoping that the U.S. economy will be given a clean bill of health in the near future may want to think again.

New predictions from the International Monetary Fund provide a gloomy picture for the next six months, suggesting that most countries in the western hemisphere will face near-zero or negative growth until mid-2009.

And, once the U.S. does begin to get back on its feet, the IMF said that recovery will happen more slowly than in previous downturns because of the "exceptional nature of the asset price adjustments taking place."

Other countries in the region are also set to face challenges, the group predicted.

"The outlook points to a major downturn for the global economy, with growth falling to its slowest pace since the 2001-02 recession," the report states.

However, the IMF suggested that the coordinated efforts taken by governments around the globe would eventually lead to a successful recovery for the global economy.

Meanwhile, in related news, CNN Money reported on Wednesday that although there some signs of a credit thaw have been observed, investors continue to behave warily due to warnings about a long recession.
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  • Bob Livingston

    It has taken many years to create this financial mess we’re in and it will take many years to come out of it.  I have long predicted this scenario and nothing but time will heal the economy.

    • http://MSN.COM ARISTIDES TURCIOS

      SIR:

      I AGREE COMPLETLY WITH YOUR SHORT BUT ACCURATE COMMEN.
      I THINK THAT IT ALL BEGAN WITH ALL THE BONDS THAT WERE SOLD
      TO SUSTAIN THE WAR IN VIET NAM, THE COST OF THE OIL DID NOT HELP
      ALLEVIATE THE COURSE THAT THE ECONOMY WAS TAKING WHILE
      THE INTEREST RATES AND THE COST OF LIVING WAS GOING UP.
      WHEN THE MILITARY EXPENDITURES MULTIPLY DURING ERA OF
      PRESIDENT REAGAN AND CONTINUED WITH THE FIRST PRESIDENT
      BUSH WHO GOT US INTO THE WAR THAT REMINDS ME OF KOREA
      BECAUSE HE DID NOT FINISH IT BUT THE DEBT JUST CONTINUED TO
      MOUNT WITH THE HELP OF THE REOUBLICAN AND DEMOCRATIC
      PARTIES WHO CARE ABOUT THEM AND THEIR FRIENDS, MORE THAN
      THE INTEREST OF THE NATION.
      I THINK THAT PRESIDENT CLINTON TRIED TO HELP BUT WHEN HE GOT
      CAUGHT DOING SOMETHING PERHAPS INAPPROPIATE IN HIS OFFICE
      HOWEVER PRIVATELY, EVERYBODY BEGAN TO TROW THEIR ROCK.
      THEN THE 2nd PRESIDENT BUSH CONTINUED THE MILITARY SPENDING
      AND GOT US INTO A WARS THAT WILL NEVER END, BUT HE CONTINUED
      SELLING BONDS AND PRINTING MONEY TO BUY NEW TOYS FOR THE
      ARMED SERVICES AND, IDEAS FROM HIS FRIENDS THAT I AM SURE
      WILL PAY FAVORS FOR FAVORS. WHAT WE HAVE IS A PACK OF DEAD
      AND LIVE RATS AND NOW; WE ARE NOBODY ECONOMICALLY,
      POLITICALLY. OUR POLITICIANS ONLY SEEM TO THINK ABOUT THE
      PRESENT BUT THE INFRASTRUCTURE TO CREATE THE EDUCATIONAL LADER FOR THE PRESENT AND FUTURE CHILDREN IS BEING REDUCED
      FOR THE FEW THAT HAVE THE ECONOMIC MEANS TO GO THROUGH A
      FILTER. HENCE, INCREASING THE MASSES FOR THE LESSER JOBS.
      IN A WAY, THIS IS A SUBTLE WAY TO DISCRIMINATE AND REDUCE
      THE POSSIBILITY THAT ANY UNDESIRABLE JOIN ANY INFLUENTIAL
      LEVEL IN THIS ECO-SOCIAL DISCRIMINATION.

  • TeresaE

    As long as the “experts” and politicians ignore the underlying CAUSE, not just the symptoms, we are not going to “come out of this” mess.

    We off shored our futures folks, for cheap socks and bigger benefits & pay for those that work for the mega-corporations–those lucky enough to not be off shored or replaced by cheap foreign-labor importees.

    Wake up people.  The only “fix” to this mess will be to reduce debt, quit supporting mega-corporations and to buy local, small and only what we need.

    Everything else is just going to prolong the pain.

    Get used to it, because apparently I am the only one that realizes that 70% of us depend on small business for our jobs, yet 100% of all “breaks” go to the largest companies and the fewest citizens.

  • Anne

    Your both right.  I’ve been following your posting Bob, and everything you said has been right on.  So have the reports from Roubini fromNYU.  And Maria, we all should do as you say for as long as we can……as long as the dollor holds any value, which is questionable.
    The more $$$ ‘s the treasury prints for this bailout and others, the less value those bills in our pockets or bankaccounts will have-same with any stocks we hold.  The dollar isn’t looking too bad now, but I have my doubts that situation will continue. It’s all just printed paper with nothing to back it….even the FDIC is almost broke…… 

    The Obama plan is to give all small business a break, and to cut out the loopholes for businesses that have gone overseas to manufacture.  Out of the Fortune 500 complanies, according to a Congressional Research Service Report, 82 paid no taxes at all.  The tax rate for corportations has not changed since 1993-26.3%.  There are many families that make less than $250,000 that pay 33% or higher.  This doesn’t seem fair, when CEO’s are making millions and walking away with even more.  I’ve heard ‘spreading the wealth around’ until I’m sick of it from Republicans!  Where do they think their Republican politicians have been spreading it, but UP!  Ever since Reagan took office, every Replican administration and Congress has given all the tax breaks to large corporations and the ultra wealthy….the rest of us have gotten, when we were lucky, an ‘incentive’ check for less than a CE0 for those Fortune 500 guys makes in a day.  If ‘spreading’ it around is socialistic, then that upper crust group has been socialist for over 20 years!~at the expense of the rest of us.  And I am befuddled that there are still those working class people who have been totally taken in by the Republican adds this campaign.  Every day, there is a letter to the editor of my newspaper like the following:”I want to quit my job and be supported those who are eager to continue working because they want to help spread the wealth.”   Why are they so determined to not hear the truth? 

  • Paul Trood

    Bang on the money Bob. It will take upward of 10 quarters. That’s if many things that need to be changed are. 

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