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Alabama Statistician Predicts Big Obama Win

October 4, 2012 by  

Alabama Statistician Predicts Big Obama Win

Alabama-based astrophysicist and statistician Wes Colley says that the Presidential race is already over and that President Barack Obama is well on his way to re-election.

Using a simple method of measuring poll data which he has employed to correctly predict the outcome of the past two Presidential elections, Colley believes Obama has locked up Ohio and Virginia and holds a small lead in Florida that will jettison him to electoral victory.

“I think the operative word is disaster if you’re a Republican,” Colley told al.com on Monday. “I think the operative word is confidence if you’re a Democrat.

“These things can swing a lot. But it would have to swing a lot a lot.”

Colley teaches statistics and physics-based modeling at the University of Alabama in Huntsville. His method predicts Obama winning the election with 348 electoral votes and Romney with only 190.

Sam Rolley

Staff writer Sam Rolley began a career in journalism working for a small town newspaper while seeking a B.A. in English. After learning about many of the biases present in most modern newsrooms, Rolley became determined to find a position in journalism that would allow him to combat the unsavory image that the news industry has gained. He is dedicated to seeking the truth and exposing the lies disseminated by the mainstream media at the behest of their corporate masters, special interest groups and information gatekeepers.

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  • witsend

    “I think the operative word is disaster if you’re a Republican,” If Obama wins, I know the operative word is disaster for EVERYONE; Republicans, Democrats, Libertarians, …

  • Warrior

    The prof better input another variable into his computer like the effects of a pissed off electorate.

    • Sirian

      Warrior,
      The way things went last is without a doubt the “other variable” the prof had not taken into consideration. . . :)

      • http://pweiters9.wordpress.com pweiters9

        10/16/12, Not to ignore the power of suggestion, I anticipate civil unrest either way it goes. This may be the most vital election of our lives; Romney must win for the good of the nation. BO just doesn’t have the mettle to stand up to him. After the embassy scandal, BO’s going to take a fall. Madam Hil’s doing damage control; it won’t work.

    • SJJolly

      Wes Colley took into account things like the US Supreme Court perhaps again deciding the Florida vote tally? Sounds like a job for a psychic, not a statistician. He’s probably assuming that the number of votes swayed either direction by the debates, barring a series sweep by Romney, will be too few to matter, which is quite likely true.

  • Dwight Mann

    Win the election, and lose the war. . .
    We got more guns, and we are the honest and ethical ones, I am led to believe.
    There is always those, that are not, in any group.

  • Fredo

    Obviously, he did not watch the debate last evening. Obeyme looked very bad and Romney looked very good. Barry cannot run on his record, and therefore has nothing to say. I say, Barry goes down in flames on November 6th. Look for another Chick-Fil-A day.

    • eddie47d

      It does seem that Obama will win in November yet Romney won last nights debate so there is still momentum for the Republicans. Romney acted like he was on Speed or an extra helping of No Doz. Obama looked haggard and not fired up at all.

      • momo

        Obama was lame, I wonder if Bill Maher wants a refund.

      • richie

        Eddie do you need a refil on the pitcher of koolaide you are drinking

      • eddie47d

        Don’t crack open that bottle of champagne yet Richie!

      • Lisa tyson

        Speed Eddie, that’s what someone acts like win they know the answers.. they can’t wait to have their turn.. I think this race is in gods hands.. If Obama wins, the Devil is in the White house not Robin Hood.. Remember Robin Hood was a thief and a liar.. And it’s the begining of the end.. Stop talking about Romney, he care’s more about fixing this Country, (you know the United States.). Obama wants to destroy it, and rule the world he is a joke, soon as Obama’s done weakening our defence’s the other Countries will come in and blow us of the map.. And the Muslim in the White House will call his brothers home.. All these do gooders, free riders and Greedy Unions will be the cause of it.. We live in a society where it doesn’t pay to be good, where bad behavior is rewarded, and white america has no place. And if you speak out about it you are a Racist!

    • http://www.facebook.com/pweiters9 Preston Weiters Jr.

      10/6/12, Romney’s the apparent victor. BO got his clock cleaned. Romney set the tone for the other 3 debates. what I fear the most is civil unrest no matter which way it goes.

  • carl

    Better cut back on his daily ration of KoolAid, me thinks it is making him have delusional thoughts just like our ‘glorius’ leader.

  • Robert Robbins

    Me thinks the Univ. should keep a close eye on this koook.

  • http://www.ucl.co.cke Mako

    Gov. Romney performed extremely well tonight, but that may not transform into votes. Watch this space folks!

  • Congress Works For Us

    Statistical models are only as good as their data points, and skewed polls are not good data points.

    For example, Ohio Dispatch poll had a D+8 electorate, but Obama only won by 4 pts in 2008 despite a D+8 turnout.

    In 2010, the turnout was R+1. In 2004 it was R+4. If Obama needs a D+8 turnout to win by 4, anything less than D+6 is a sure loser, and D+6 isn’t about to happen any time soon.

    • Congress Works For Us

      I should add that Bush lost Independents in Ohio by 19 points in 2004, but still won the State. Currently, pretty much every poll out there has Romney winning Independents in Ohio.

  • http://www.cindynel.co.za peter

    One way or another, the writing is on the wall. How about heads you lose and tails you lose? Anything to debate there?

    • TML

      Not really… it amounts to prophetic speak.

      • michiganminuteman

        Tml, why don’t you go bother someone on the huffington post, you have very few comrades here

      • TML

        Although I don’t relate the huffington post as relevant, I don’t wish to preach to the choir… often i will tend to be the devil’s advocate against a perceived majority.

        • http://www.ucl.co.cke Mako

          Folks some comments have been about Obama and his Kenyan roots; a see story about what Kenya has achieved beside her African sisters and what the the USA and her allies have failed to achieve;

          Now that the Somali port city of Kismayu, the last bastion of the Al Shabaab militants, has fallen to the Kenyan contingent of the African Union peacekeeping force and allied Somali forces, all the main towns and strategic areas of Somalia are under the control of Amisom and Somali government.

          Al Shabaab, though, still controls chunks of the countryside, and has the ability to stage guerrilla and terrorist attacks, as recent events in Mogadishu have shown.

          The next stage might prove to be the most difficult part of the pacification of Somalia.

          That said, the meaning of Amisom’s achievement in Somalia is far-reaching. Uganda sent the first troops to Somalia in 2007. A group officers arrived in Mogadishu in March, and several thousand troops landed there some months later in August.

          By the time of the fall of Kismayu, Amisom was comprised of troops from Uganda, Burundi, Djibouti and Sierra Leone. That might not say much until we go 4,376 kilometres away to Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan.

          The Americans and their Nato allies have been in Afghanistan since 2001, doing pretty much what Amisom is doing in Somalia — crush Al Qaeda and the Taliban, the older cousins of Al Shabaab.

          Afghanistan’s terrain may be more unforgiving than Somalia’s, but the two countries are about the same size. Somalia is 637,657 square kilometres in size, and Afghanistan is 647,500 sq km

          Since 2001, 49 countries have contributed to the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), as the external forces in Afghanistan are called.

          Since 2007, only four countries have contributed troops to Amisom. Five, if you count Ethiopia, which, while active in Somalia, has remained outside Amisom.

          ISAF is made of 130,000 troops. Amisom has 17,000 – just 13 per cent of ISAF. Up to last month about 3,290 ISAF personnel had been killed.

          The official figure for Amisom casualties is 500, though some analysts say those are deaths on the field. The number of those who died of injuries later in hospital and recent Kenya casualties, they say, is about 380, which would bring the figure to 880.

          Liberal estimates have the cost of Amisom over the past five years at $1.5 billion. The cost of the Afghanistan for the US alone, is estimated to be $4 trillion, and for the UK $27 billion.

          It is useless to try to compare the Amisom and ISAF costs, but perhaps a better way to put it is that the Afghanistan war costs the US some $300 million a day, more than the cost of Amisom for each of the years from 2007 to 2011.

          This year, because of Kenya’s entry and the addition of Sierra Leone, Amisom’s budget will climb to about $450 million.

          We will not even go into the human cost. What this says is that Amisom is much more efficient and better in all ways at peacekeeping than Nato.

          It took half the time ISAF needed in Afghanistan; with about 27 per cent of its casualties; and less than 0.5 per cent of the cost. There is no question who should be the student, and who the teacher, here.

  • Nobody’s Fool

    Obviously the good professor should have waited until after the first debate to make his prediction. There was a presidential-looking candidate on that stage last night, and it wasn’t the current office-holder. Romney rocked that stage!!! oBlamer looked more like Honey Boo Boo after a day at the mud bog.

    • momo

      Exactly!

    • Steve E

      Obama kept looking down when Romney was talking and Obama looked like he was being scolded by parent. That’s why he doesn’t meet with other leaders. He’s afraid he will get scolded.

      • zach

        Oh yeah… I did’nt watch the debates (no TV since 1989) I can’t stand either of these pukes, however, it appears some real swingin’ was happenin’ in the club last night!!

      • e

        You know better than that Steve. Obama will meet with any leader but it will be on his terms. If you are referring to Netanyahu’s request that is because Netanyahu set the issue and expected Obama to roll over for him. First of all Obama didn’t have time to meet with him and secondly he didn’t have a right to tell Obama what position to take “or else”.

  • James Kirksey

    Elections are dependent upon so many things. Obama has some advantage with many of the left leaning media. However, this is not as stable as it was for him in 2008. The polls are too biased to be reliable. In states with voter ID, and other techniques of preventing voter fraud, Obama’s chances are greatly reduced. Ohio and Pennsylvania were among many in 2008, where voters were openly inteminated by Panthers and the charges were dismissed by a rogue Attorney General. In a fair election, Romney has better than an even chance of defeating Obama. All of these kooks can take chicken bones or whatever and try to make a prediction of the outcome. However, we have the election day, vote counts, certifications by officials and likely several court appearances before it is settled. Yogy said, “It aint over till its over.”

  • Viet Nam Vet 67-68

    Colley either knows the Election is rigged and the votes to be counted are thru a Spanish firm that George Soros owns and the Election is already over or Romney in a real Election will win at least 45 States out of the Abomination 57 States. This will be like Reagan/Carter unless its Rigged. Abomination the Tan Man look like a Deer in the Headlights, using Clintons old addage if you tell a LIE often enough people will start to believe it. Suggesting Romney was going to cut $5 Trillion and spend $2 Trillion on Defense (I hope he does) saying it several times and being Scolded like the little Marxist that he is and being told its a white lie to keep saying that. Abomination was angered several times , he can’t stand someone telling him that his new Marxist regeim is not working and 23 Million Unemployed Americans for a Record 44 Straight months is not Acceptable. He also didn’t like being told that his so called energy program was a total failure giving back to his Donors and his oil and gas exploration is fake since its private enterprise (Capitalism) that has increased production nothing that he has done. Remember Abomination says Capitalism dosen’t work, what made us the Greatest Country in the world But Capitalism !!!!! Abomination is the Marxist Manchurian Candidate and needs to go to another Country probably Arab since he is a Muslim. Good going Romney and Screw you Abomination. Viet Nam Vet 67-68

    • eddie47d

      You’re too funny 67-68. I reckon I could say Romney flip flops so much and on every issue no one will really know which side of him we are actually voting for. He has us so confused on where he really stands in his attempts to please each side. In Massachusetts he manipulated the Democrats and now he is conning the Republicans.Next he will be doing a Vegas floor show!

      • Marlene

        Perhaps you should stop ‘reckoning’. You’re so confused by it you can’t see the forest for the trees. Poor, pathetic little Obama toady.

      • eddie47d

        Will you have the courage to ask the real Romney “to please stand up”!!

  • Robert Ransom

    THE polls froM Wednesday debate Showed the publIc believed Romney won the debate by 67 percent to Obama 25 percent on CNN.The poll showed a win in all catagories. I believe this throws the professor’s prediction in the toilet.

  • s c

    The drug this character is taking has the potential to make him richer than George Soros, Carlos Slim and the guy in England. So, how addictive is it?

  • Casey

    I think if the professor used the poll data I have seen, his results are scewed. Most of the poll data I have seen do not account for the differences in the electorate this election compared to the last two elections.

    The extrapolations common to small sample polls are, in my opinion, inaccurate. I have no clue what the ral poll numbers are, but I do not feel that Romney is that far behind. In fact, I think he is ahead. Just when I say that, I watched a replay of the debate last night with a reaction graph of Colorado men and women voters. President Obama certainly got a good reaction from women!

    Whew!

  • Phillip in TX

    If he can pick the winning lottery ticket numbers, twice in a row, then I will be impressed.

  • Dad

    Wes Colley, a.k.a. Forrest Gump…
    I have a Physics one… “Government folks at rest, stay at rest…” ha, ha, ha, ha, ha

  • http://yahoo.com charles

    ediehas to be a paid pundit for the obama camp, i clearly dont get it how can anyone defend this idiot just look at his record worst than jimmy carter’s

    • michiganminuteman

      charles, it is mind boggling that some people can be shown a lighter but see an ash tray.

  • JCfromDC

    I guess this guy missed the debate. I can’t wait for Ryan to completely, blitz, torpedo, and drop-kick “Big F-ing Deal” Biden to the ash heap of irrelevance. It’s over all right. Thank God there is a God.

  • http://www.facebook.com/jim.cain.7564 Jim Cain

    IF THE PEOPLE OF THIS NATION REALLY WANT TO SEE THINGS TURN AROUND:
    NOTICE THE WORD “IF” AND “REALLY” WE CAN DO IT, BUT NOT WITHOUT GOD AND SINCE 1963 THE AMERICAN PEOPLE HAVE BEEN GOING IT ALONE AND TELLING GOD TO BUTT OUT OF THEIR LIVES. ISRAEL DID THE SAME THING; read
    Isiah 9:10 then go to the speeches made by our so called leadership right after 9/11.
    Israel sacrificed their children to Idols…………..We have killed ours by Abortion. Israel left God out of their lives we have taken Him out of our schools and through “Separation of Church and State” virtually out of America. Obama can have a Muslim dinner at the white house but we cant have a Christmas tree on public property! Christians were told to stay away from the DNC because of our family/ pro life/pro God status. The DNC didnt even want the name of our Creator in their platform!!…………………..GOD HELP US!!

  • Sol of Texas

    I have no idea what to make of this article. The methods and techniques employed by the professor are not described in any way.

  • http://www.facebook.com/andrew.duncan.16503 Andrew Duncan

    UAH ???? This school needs to examine the people they have teaching. First a murderer now an obvious idiot. …. High time The University of Alabama drop the Huntsville campus from our higher learning facility list.
    Roll Tide!

  • http://liberty Tony

    Look Everyone: Both Candidates were awful last night. Romney lied up a storm and Obama looked like he was in La-La Land. Time to vote Libertarian!!

    • michiganminuteman

      Hey ass, DON’T TRY TO TELL ME WHAT I SAW! maybe you were watching big bird!

      • michiganminuteman

        first, if you want to talk about liers, you should be looking into oblama’s eyes and quit looking at his package.

      • eddie47d

        Still playing the role of the whacked out militiaman Mr Minute? You are not better than a brain fart.

      • http://twitter.com/nobaddog eddie sessum (@nobaddog)

        I saw it to. Obama is a dullard idiot and Romney knew the answers.

  • nickkin

    Colley should seal his school records and his job performance……I can see why the liberals have a problem with math is because if that’s how liberal math is taught than we are in a boom economy and we have so many allies abroad that we don’t need a military. Let’s see there professor….count the foot soldiers, tanks and aircraft for all the foreigners that will defend the USA. Is there enough?

  • http://www.facebook.com/jeff.campbell.503 Jeff Campbell

    I’m no astrophysicist, but his numbers don’t jive with what other astrophysicist’s are saying, nor does it jive with Colorado State’s computer model, and the true numbers I trust that naver have let me down is the Las Vegas Bookie numbers, they are all predicting a massive loss for Obama.

    Either way, I think as usual the true losers will be the people because we have 2 choices, Obama a fast meltdown of America and our personal liberty’s or a slower versian of it under Romney. So the choice is, get it over with now, or wait a little longer.

  • gramps

    If you are concerned about voter fraud, then become a part of True the Vote and do something about it. It could change the results to be truthful in the vote tally at the end of elelction night. If you decide to sit and watch, then we all deserve Mr. O,…again.

  • Greg

    Whew……!!!!, i’m sure glad that astrophysicist statisticians are only correct < 25% of the time.

  • http://www.facebook.com/benjamin.fox.98892 Benjamin Fox

    The pictures of this little messiah say it all, a ego bigger then the grand canyon, a little god, the reason he replaced the American flag on Airforce one and put his stupid logo on it, we got change alright, from freedom to nazi control. Don’t listen to the propaganda of the left, they want people to believe it is over, that they hope will get you to stay home, don’t fall for it, get out and vote the clown-in-chief out to spend time in jail or in Kenya where he won’t be the little god he wants to be.

    • Duncan McNeil

      You are so full of [expletive deleted]

  • auhunter

    And the stars told you this?

  • http://AvoidingPoliticalDeception.blogspot.com John

    The statistician must watch MSNBC. I know most voters are pathetically ignorant – just today I was on the bank platform and the the young lady did not even know that our Ambassador to Libya was raped and murdered. There are tens of millions like this clueless lass. However, who among those who voted for Obama will voted for him again? THe millions who fell into poverty? The true Christian blacks who deplore the ideas of taxpayer funded aboriton, homosexual marriage, and the massive unemployment in the black community? Unemployed college grads forced to move back home? Small buisiness owners whose lifetime businesses have shrunk or disappeared? HIspanics who ghave lost their jobs or had their salaries halved by illegals coming across ill-protected borders? Yes, the idiolators and the ignnorant will vote for Obama. So will the felons, the dead, and the dogs in Chicaho, St. Lousis. New Orleans, and Philadelphia. But will that be enough?:

  • r.p.

    I hope his students have a handle on his credibility. If not, they’re going to be dissapointed.

  • Phillip Burnett

    So this guy apparently made this before last nights debate then, right? Although either way, the polls have clearly been rigged / skewed (over reporting & over anticipating Democratic voter probability)! In that, almost all of them are predicting an even higher democrat turn out than 2008. and yet, everyone knows that the democrat base is not nearly as enthused as they were! Heck did they all forget what happened in 2010?? Well, guess what folks the only thing that has changed since 2010 is that the American People have actually gotten even madder about the misleading media and the liberal methodologies that have been employed! But hey, when the landslide comes in it wont be for OBama as it will be for Mitt Romney! So i don’t know where this cat is coming from, but he needs to put the pipe down before he burns his lips!!! What a Moron!!

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