Political Science Professors Release New Model, Romney Wins Big
October 9, 2012 by Bryan Nash
In August, political science professors Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry predicted that Mitt Romney would win the election. They have since produced an updated model that gives a new result: an even bigger win for Romney.
The team of professors has created a model that has correctly chosen the President every year since 1980.
Despite the fact that many national polls show Obama out in front, the Bickers and Berry model continues to show Romney winning by a landslide. Their original forecast had Romney winning with 320 electoral votes. The new forecast shows Romney taking the White House with 330 electoral votes.
“We continue to show that the economic conditions favor Romney even though many polls show the president in the lead,” Bickers said. “Other published models point to the same result, but they looked at the national popular vote, while we stress state-level economic data.”
The new model predicts that President Barack Obama will carry Michigan and Nevada and that Romney will win New Mexico, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida.
“As scholars and pundits well know, each election has unique elements that could lead one or more states to behave in ways in a particular election that the model is unable to correctly predict,” wrote Bickers and Berry.